INDEX TRADING WEEKLY UPDATE

SP500 after having a solid recovery got itself in a trading range(1230-1280). The current downtrend seems suspended for now since we are now in our 2nd up cycle of the year. DOW also got itself in a trading range. ND100 is also continuing it's current trading range for a month now.

Trading range

Last trades update

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Trading range

Index Market	Current Price	2 weeks Change	# cycles completed
SP500	1260.31	-0.37	1
ND100	1826.56	+3.33	1
Dow	11326	-161	1

SP500 Last Comment

SP500 after a solid recovery got itself in a trading range(1230-1280) now lasting for almost 3 weeks. The current downtrend is suspended for now and we finally have our second up cycle of the year. I don't expect this cycle to go very high. RSI is at around 55 neutral. We can expect this trading range to last a large part of august.

1220 is our first support. 1180 is our second support

ND100 continue acting in a trading range(1800-1870) now lasting for over a month. It is still far however from it's first level support of 1710. We can expect this trading range to continue a good part of august.

We can consider that our first support is now at 1710, our next support at 1450.

DOW is also in a trading range(11200-11700) now lasting for 3 weeks. DOW started also it's second up cycle of the year. I don't expect this cycle to go very high however. We can expect this trading range to last a good part of august.

Our first support is now at 10800.

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Click here to find the options trading signals page. Economic Current Conditions

Table of Economic Numbers

Economic Info

July 2008

June 2008

May 2008

April 2008

March 2008

February 2008

January 2008

December 2007

November 2007

October 2007

September 2007

August 2007

PPI

+1.8%

+1.4

+0.2%

+1,1%

+0.3%

+1.0%

-01.%

+3.2%

+0.1%

+1.1%

-1.4%

Core PPI

+0.2%

+0.2%

+0.4%

+0.2%

+0.5%

+0.4%

+0.2%

+0.4%

+0.0%

+0.1%

+0.2%

Retail Sales

+0.1%

+0.8%

+0.4%

+0.2%

-0.4%

+0.4%

-0.4%

+1.2%

+0.2%

+0.6%

+0.3%

CPI

+1.1%

+0.6%

+0.2%

+0.3%

+0.0%

+0.4%

+0.3%

+0.8%

+0.3%

+0.3%

-0.1%

Core CPI

+0.3%

+0.2%

+0.1%

+0.2%

+0.0%

+0.3%

+0.2%

+0.3%

+0.2%

+0.2%

+0.2%

Housing Starts

1.091M

0.975M

1.008M

0.954M

1.065M

1.012M

1.004M

1.173M

1.232M

1.193M

1.33M

Building Permits

1.066M

0.969M

0.982M

0.932M

0.978M

1.048M

1.080M

1.152M

1.170M

1.126M

1.326M

Employment

-51,000

-51,000

-62,000

-28,000

-81,000

-63,000

-22,000

+82,000

+135,000

+170,000

+96,000

89,000

Durable Goods Orders

+0.8%

+0.1%

-1.0%

-0.3%

-0.9%

-4.7%

+4.4%

+0.5%

-0.4%

-1.7%

-5.3%

New Homes Sales

-0.56%

-2.28%

+2.8%

-8.5%

-1.83%

-2.81%

-4.7%

-9.00%

+1.68%

-4.8%

Existing Homes Sales

4.86 Millions

4.99 Millions

4.89 Millions

4.93 Millions

5.03 Millions

4.89 Millions

4.91 Millions

5.00 MIllions

4.98 Millions

5.04 Millions

5.48 Millions

ISM Index(Manufacturing)

50.0

50.2

49.6

48.6

48.6

48.3

50.7

48.4

50.8

50.9

52.0

52.9

ISM Services

48.2

51.7

52.0

49.6

49.3

44.6

53.9

54.1

55.8

54.8

55.8

Factory Orders

+0.6%

+1.3%

+1.5%

-0.9%

-2.3%

+2.3%

+1.5%

+0.7%

+0.30%

-3.5%

GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers

2nd Quarter 2008	1st Quarter 2008	4th Quarter 2007	3rd Quarter 2007	2nd Quarter 2007	1st Quarter 2007	4th Quarter 2006	3rd Quarter 2006	2nd Quarter 2006	1st Quarter 2006	4th Quarter 2005	3rd Quarter 2005
+1.9%	+1.0%	+0.6%	+4.9%	+3.8%	+0.7%	2.5%	2.0%	2.6%	5.6%	1.7%	4.3%

Inflation Numbers

Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.5% and CPI at 4.5%.

In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers.

For June existing home sales were down 0.5% and new home sales wher edown 0.56% inline with expectations. Durable good orders were up 0.8% better than expected. For july employment was down 51,000 jobs inline with expectations. Finally GDP for second quarter came in at +1.9% a bit lower than expectations.

Economic slowdown continues no surprise about that. Real estate market seems to settle down a bit even if we did not find the bottom just yet. GDP is still postive so we are not in recession. Crude oil is finally down sharply giving some breathing space to monetary authorities. If next inflation numbers are lower than previous ones might be able to delay increasing rates and start doing next year instead of at the end of this year. The FED made it clear the rate cuts are over and may have to start rising them earlier than previously forecasted.

The SP500 PE ratio is at 19.1 according to December results. We are close to the high end of the 16-20 range which means we could see lower levels.

Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are in the high end of the range (16-20).