INDEX TRADING WEEKLY UPDATE

SP500 is setting back a little to the moving average after coming near upper band. DOW touched upper band and retreating a little to the moving average. ND100 also touched upper band and is still above the moving average.

Up cycle going

Last trades update

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Up cycle going

Index Market	Current Price	2 weeks Change	# cycles completed
SP500	11315.22	+27.08	0
ND100	1767.57	+53.74	0
Dow	12216	+265	0

SP500 Last Comment

SP500 after retesting january low of 1270 started an up cycle as forecasted. SP500 nearly touched the upper band at 1360 to set back this past week to 1315 around the moving average. We can observe that SP500 is near breaking a mid term downtrend lasting since last october but it is not done yet. We can expect SP500 to resume up in the coming weeks and retest 1360. We don't expect a strong upward move since we are all waiting for 1st quarter financial results especially for financial sector. We will know more around mid april. 1270 remains a very important support since it was the bear market intraday lowest point.

1270 is our first support 1220 is our next support.

ND100 also started an up cycle as forecasted. It touched the upper band at 1825 and then had a set back to 1768 above the moving average. The recovery with ND100 seems a bit stronger than with SP500. We can expect the up cycle to resume in the coming 2 weeks to retest 1825 level but we don't expect ND100 to get much higher since we are near 1st quarter financial results.

We can consider that our first support is now at 1710, our next support at 1450.

DOW is in the same situation as SP500 and is now at the moving average in a temporary set back. DOW contrary to SP500 is now in a trading range (12300-12600) and ended the mid term downtrend lasting since last october. So we can expect this trading range to continue and we can expect a retest to last high of 12600 in the coming 2 weeks.

Our first support is now at 12000 and our next support is at 10800.

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Date	Market	Trade Type	Description	Symbol	Strike Price	Month	Margin	Amount	Current	Profit
2008/03/28	SPX	PUT Uncovered	Sell PUT uncovered May SPX	SXY		May	12000	550$	0$	0$
2008/03/28	RUT	PUT Uncovered	Sell PUT RUT May	RUT		May	7000	300$	0$	0$

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Click here to find the options trading signals page. Economic Current Conditions

Table of Economic Numbers

Economic Info

February 2008

January 2008

December 2007

November 2007

October 2007

September 2007

August 2007

July 2007

June 2007

May 2007

April 2007

March 2007

PPI

+0.3%

+1.0%

-01.%

+3.2%

+0.1%

+1.1%

-1.4%

+0.6%

-0.2%

+0.9%

+0.7%

+1.0%

Core PPI

+0.5%

+0.4%

+0.2%

+0.4%

+0.0%

+0.1%

+0.2%

+0.1%

+0.3%

+0.2%

0.0%

0.0%

Retail Sales

-0.6%

+0.4%

-0.4%

+1.2%

+0.2%

+0.6%

+0.3%

+0.5%

-0.9%

+1.5%

-0.2%

+1.0%

CPI

+0.0%

+0.4%

+0.3%

+0.8%

+0.3%

+0.3%

-0.1%

+0.1%

+0.2%

+0.7%

+0.4%

+0.6%

Core CPI

+0.0%

+0.3%

+0.2%

+0.3%

+0.2%

+0.2%

+0.2%

+0.2%

+0.2%

+0.1%

+0.2%

+0.4%

Housing Starts

1.065M

1.012M

1.004M

1.173M

1.232M

1.193M

1.33M

1.367M

1.47M

1.474M

1.506M

1.491M

Building Permits

0.978M

1.048M

1.080M

1.152M

1.170M

1.126M

1.326M

1.389M

1.41M

1.501M

1.429M

1.56(M

Employment

-63,000

-22,000

+82,000

+135,000

+170,000

+96,000

89,000

+68,000

132,000

+190,000

+88,000

+177,000

Durable Goods Orders

-1.7%

-4.7%

+4.4%

+0.5%

-0.4%

-1.7%

-5.3%

+6.1%

+1.9%

-2.8%

+1.1%

+3.4%

New Homes Sales

-1.83%

-2.81%

-4.7%

-9.00%

+1.68%

-4.8%

-8.0%

+3.7%

-6.5%

-1.61%

+16.2%

Existing Homes Sales

5.03 Millions

4.89 Millions

4.91 Millions

5.00 MIllions

4.98 Millions

5.04 Millions

5.48 Millions

5.75 Millions

5.76 Millions

5.99 Millions

6.01 Millions

6.15 Millions

ISM Index(Manufacturing)

48.3

50.7

48.4

50.8

50.9

52.0

52.9

53.8

56.0

55.0

54.7

50.9

ISM Services

49.3

44.6

53.9

54.1

55.8

54.8

55.8

55.8

60.7

59.7

56.0

52.4

Factory Orders

-2.5%

+2.3%

+1.5%

+0.7%

+0.30%

-3.5%

+3.4%

+1.0%

-0.5%

+0.5%

+3.1%

GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers

4th Quarter 2007	3rd Quarter 2007	2nd Quarter 2007	1st Quarter 2007	4th Quarter 2006	3rd Quarter 2006	2nd Quarter 2006	1st Quarter 2006	4th Quarter 2005	3rd Quarter 2005
+0.6%	+4.9%	+3.8%	+0.7%	2.5%	2.0%	2.6%	5.6%	1.7%	4.3%

Inflation Numbers

Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.5% and CPI at 4.5%.

In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers.

For february PPI was up 0.3% and core PPI was up 0.5% higher than expected. Housing starts were up slightly from previous month but building permits were lower than previous month again. Existing home sales were up a bit from previous month and new home sales were down 2% from previous month. Durable good orders were down 1.7% much lower than expected.

Economic slowdown continue to be a reality. Real estate numbers in general continue to weaken. PPI numbers were higher than expected and take the toll on weaker and weaker dollar. The way numbers are coming in we should not be surprised to see a negative GDP for first quarter. The FED will have to stop lowering rates soon or will have to face inflation for real. So for mid term it does not look well for stock market.

The SP500 PE ratio is at 16.70 according to September results. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are in the middle of the range (16-20).