SP500 finally had a set back and now finding support at 1500. ND100 remains in a solid uptrend still going now for 3 months. DOW had a set back too and now finding support at 13500.
Finding Support
Last trades update
| Index Market |
Current Price |
2 weeks Change |
# cycles completed |
| SP500 |
1535.28 |
-26.52 |
2 |
| ND100 |
2194.59 |
16.60 |
2 |
| Dow |
13807 |
-292 |
3 |
SP500 Last Comment
SP500 finally had our long awaited set back. It first went down hard in a few days to 1500 a week ago being oversold at that time. But It found support exactly at that level for the next week. It is now near the moving average. SP500 is now neutral with an RSI at 40. We may expect a retest of 1500 level and if this level holds we may have a rally till the end of the year. Financial results out so far are mixed but not as bad as forecasted which make SP500 holding up. 1410 is now our first support and should not be penetrated for a long while.
1410 is now our first support. 1380 is now our next support.
ND100 Last Signal Comment
ND100 remains strong in a solid uptrend despite little negative divergences appaearing now. It is slowing down a bit but never went under the moving average like other markets did. ND100 is out of overbought level with an RSI reading of 54. We might see a retest to the moving average soon and now that we are in the best period of the year we can also expect the uptrend to resume in a week or two.
We can consider that our first support is now at 1850, our next support at 1710 and the next one at 1450.
DOW Last Signal Comment
DOW like SP500 had a set back to 13500 and entered an oversold level. DOW is now finding temporary support at 13500 and is in a similar position as SP500 technically. A retest of 13500 is possible in the coming week and if 13500 level can hold for a week or two this could be the base for a last rally this year. DOW is neutral with RSI reading of 407.
Our first support is now at 12845 and our next support is at 12050.
Special Option Strategy Update
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Our december trades were in the red for a while but are now back about even. Our strike prices are very low and will yield us another profit. We may decide to rollover in late november if markets can hold their current positions. You now need to subscribe to our trading service to see the specifications. It is still time to enter last trade. All our portfolio shows a 17% plus value since beginning of march so far.
Last signals review
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each current position is used in each portfolio.
| Date |
Market |
Trade Type |
Description |
Symbol |
Strike Price |
Month |
Margin |
Amount |
Current |
Profit |
| 2007/10/11 |
SPX |
PUT Uncovered |
Sell PUT uncovered September SPX |
SXY |
|
December |
14000 |
560$ |
720$ |
-160$ |
| 2007/10/11 |
RUT |
PUT Uncovered |
Sell PUT RUT November |
RUT |
|
December |
7000 |
360$ |
490$ |
-130$ |
Always remember that you need between 12,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract.
Click here to find the options trading signals page.
Economic Current Conditions
Table of Economic Numbers
| Economic Info |
September 2007 |
August 2007 |
July 2007 |
June 2007 |
May 2007 |
April 2007 |
March 2007 |
February 2007 |
January 2007 |
December 2006 |
November 2006 |
October 2006 |
| PPI |
+1.1% |
-1.4% |
+0.6% |
-0.2% |
+0.9% |
+0.7% |
+1.0% |
+1.3% |
-0.6% |
+0.9% |
+2.0% |
-1.6% |
| Core PPI |
+0.1% |
+0.2% |
+0.1% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
+0.4% |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+1.3% |
-0.9% |
| Retail Sales |
+0.6% |
+0.3% |
+0.5% |
-0.9% |
+1.5% |
-0.2% |
+1.0% |
+0.5% |
0.0% |
+0.9% |
+0.6% |
+0.1% |
| CPI |
+0.3% |
-0.1% |
+0.1% |
+0.2% |
+0.7% |
+0.4% |
+0.6% |
+0.4% |
+0.2% |
+0.5% |
0.0% |
-0.5% |
| Core CPI |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+0.1% |
+0.2% |
+0.4% |
+0.2% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
0.0% |
+0.1% |
| Housing Starts |
1.19M |
1.33M |
1.367M |
1.47M |
1.474M |
1.506M |
1.491M |
1.51M |
1.40M |
1.64M |
1.57M |
1.486M |
| Building Permits |
1.126M |
1.326M |
1.389M |
1.41M |
1.501M |
1.429M |
1.56(M |
1.53M |
1.568M |
1.60M |
1.51M |
1.535M |
| Employment |
=100,000 |
89,000 |
+68,000 |
132,000 |
+190,000 |
+88,000 |
+177,000 |
+113,000 |
+146,000 |
+206,000 |
+132,000 |
+79,000 |
| Durable Goods Orders |
-1.7% |
-5.3% |
+6.1% |
+1.9% |
-2.8% |
+1.1% |
+3.4% |
+2.4% |
-7.8% |
|
+1.9% |
-8.3% |
| Durable Goods Excluding Transportation |
|
|
+3.7% |
|
-1.0% |
|
+1.5% |
-0.4% |
-3.1% |
|
-1.1% |
| New Homes Sales |
-4.8% |
-8.0% |
+3.7% |
-6.5% |
-1.61% |
+16.2% |
+2.6% |
-4.0% |
-6.6% |
+12% |
+3.9% |
| Existing Homes Sales |
5.04 Millions |
5.48 Millions |
5.75 Millions |
5.76 Millions |
5.99 Millions |
6.01 Millions |
6.15 Millions |
6.68 Millions |
6.46 Millions |
6.22 Millions |
6.28 Millions |
6.24 Millions |
| ISM Index(Manufacturing) |
52.0 |
52.9 |
53.8 |
56.0 |
55.0 |
54.7 |
50.9 |
52.3 |
49.3 |
51.4 |
49.5 |
51.2 |
| ISM Services |
54.8 |
55.8 |
55.8 |
60.7 |
59.7 |
56.0 |
52.4 |
54.3 |
59.0 |
56.7 |
58.9 |
57.1 |
Factory Orders |
|
-3.3% |
+3.4% |
+1.0% |
-0.5% |
+0.5% |
+3.1% |
+1.0% |
-5.6% |
+2.4% |
+0.9 |
-4.5% |
GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers
| 2nd Quarter 2007 |
1st Quarter 2007 |
4th Quarter 2006 |
3rd Quarter 2006 |
2nd Quarter 2006 |
1st Quarter 2006 |
4th Quarter 2005 |
3rd Quarter 2005 |
| +3.8% |
+0.7% |
2.5% |
2.0% |
2.6% |
5.6% |
1.7% |
4.3% |
Inflation Numbers
Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.2% and CPI at 2.7%.
In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers.
CPI for September was up 0.3% and core CPI was up +0.2% inline with expectations. Housing starts for september were down 10% and building permits were down 15% much more than anticipated. Existing home sales were down 8% and new home sales were up 4.8% again under expectations. Durable good orders were down 1.7% less than expected.
Inflation numbers remain in good shape. Real estate markets continue to decline even faster than anticipated. Durable good orders were much weaker than expected as well. So the FED has a better and better window opportunity to lower rates again at the end of October. So be prepared to another rate decrease by .25 and even .50 next wednesday.
The prime is now at 4.75 and could be lowered again next month.
The SP500 PE ratio is at 18.04 according to June results. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are in the middle of the range (16-20) with the best period of the year kicking in.