SP500 continue it's uptrend despite overbought condition. ND100 remains strong of all markets with a solid uptrend still going now for 2 months. DOW also continue in it's recent uptrend.
Uptrend continue
Last trades update
| Index Market |
Current Price |
2 weeks Change |
# cycles completed |
| SP500 |
1561.80 |
35.05 |
2 |
| ND100 |
2177.99 |
86.88 |
2 |
| Dow |
14093 |
197 |
2 |
SP500 Last Comment
SP500 continue it's recent uptrend. It even broked above previous year high of 1555 and established all time high level. We should not expect any bad market condition for the rest of the year since we now enter the best part of the year. Expected set back did not come even if SP500 remains overbought at present time with RSI at 71. Every brief set back of a few points resume upward rapidly. Sooner or later we will have a set back to the moving average but this is almost unsignificant. 1410 is now our first support and should not be penetrated for a long while.
1410 is now our first support. 1380 is now our next support.
ND100 Last Signal Comment
ND100 remains very strong of all markets and continues in a solid uptrend despite continuous overbought condition. It broked above year high of 2050 on a very solid way. A few set brief set backs occured but uptrend resumed immediately. ND100 is quite overbought with an RSI reading of 76 so we can expect a short set back just under the upper band and then should resume uptrend.
We can consider that our first support is now at 1850, our next support at 1710 and the next one at 1450.
DOW Last Signal Comment
DOW also like SP500 continue it's recent uptrend. DOW broked above recent all time high and is near very overbought level with an RSI reading of 67. A short term set back is still expected but could be very brief.
Our first support is now at 12845 and our next support is at 12050.
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| Date |
Market |
Trade Type |
Description |
Symbol |
Strike Price |
Month |
Margin |
Amount |
Current |
Profit |
| 2007/10/11 |
SPX |
PUT Uncovered |
Sell PUT uncovered September SPX |
SXY |
|
December |
14000 |
560$ |
660$ |
-100$ |
| 2007/10/11 |
RUT |
PUT Uncovered |
Sell PUT RUT November |
RUT |
|
December |
7000 |
360$ |
420$ |
-60$ |
Always remember that you need between 12,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract.
Click here to find the options trading signals page.
Economic Current Conditions
Table of Economic Numbers
| Economic Info |
September 2007 |
August 2007 |
July 2007 |
June 2007 |
May 2007 |
April 2007 |
March 2007 |
February 2007 |
January 2007 |
December 2006 |
November 2006 |
October 2006 |
| PPI |
+1.1% |
-1.4% |
+0.6% |
-0.2% |
+0.9% |
+0.7% |
+1.0% |
+1.3% |
-0.6% |
+0.9% |
+2.0% |
-1.6% |
| Core PPI |
+0.1% |
+0.2% |
+0.1% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
+0.4% |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+1.3% |
-0.9% |
| Retail Sales |
+0.6% |
+0.3% |
+0.5% |
-0.9% |
+1.5% |
-0.2% |
+1.0% |
+0.5% |
0.0% |
+0.9% |
+0.6% |
+0.1% |
| CPI |
|
-0.1% |
+0.1% |
+0.2% |
+0.7% |
+0.4% |
+0.6% |
+0.4% |
+0.2% |
+0.5% |
0.0% |
-0.5% |
| Core CPI |
|
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+0.1% |
+0.2% |
+0.4% |
+0.2% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
0.0% |
+0.1% |
| Housing Starts |
|
1.33M |
1.367M |
1.47M |
1.474M |
1.506M |
1.491M |
1.51M |
1.40M |
1.64M |
1.57M |
1.486M |
| Building Permits |
|
1.307 |
1.389M |
1.41M |
1.501M |
1.429M |
1.56(M |
1.53M |
1.568M |
1.60M |
1.51M |
1.535M |
| Employment |
=100,000 |
89,000 |
+68,000 |
132,000 |
+190,000 |
+88,000 |
+177,000 |
+113,000 |
+146,000 |
+206,000 |
+132,000 |
+79,000 |
| Durable Goods Orders |
|
-4.9% |
+6.1% |
+1.9% |
-2.8% |
+1.1% |
+3.4% |
+2.4% |
-7.8% |
|
+1.9% |
-8.3% |
| Durable Goods Excluding Transportation |
|
|
+3.7% |
|
-1.0% |
|
+1.5% |
-0.4% |
-3.1% |
|
-1.1% |
| New Homes Sales |
|
-8.0% |
+3.7% |
-6.5% |
-1.61% |
+16.2% |
+2.6% |
-4.0% |
-6.6% |
+12% |
+3.9% |
| Existing Homes Sales |
|
5.50 Millions |
5.75 Millions |
5.76 Millions |
5.99 Millions |
6.01 Millions |
6.15 Millions |
6.68 Millions |
6.46 Millions |
6.22 Millions |
6.28 Millions |
6.24 Millions |
| ISM Index(Manufacturing) |
52.0 |
52.9 |
53.8 |
56.0 |
55.0 |
54.7 |
50.9 |
52.3 |
49.3 |
51.4 |
49.5 |
51.2 |
| ISM Services |
54.8 |
55.8 |
55.8 |
60.7 |
59.7 |
56.0 |
52.4 |
54.3 |
59.0 |
56.7 |
58.9 |
57.1 |
Factory Orders |
|
-3.3% |
+3.4% |
+1.0% |
-0.5% |
+0.5% |
+3.1% |
+1.0% |
-5.6% |
+2.4% |
+0.9 |
-4.5% |
GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers
| 2nd Quarter 2007 |
1st Quarter 2007 |
4th Quarter 2006 |
3rd Quarter 2006 |
2nd Quarter 2006 |
1st Quarter 2006 |
4th Quarter 2005 |
3rd Quarter 2005 |
| +3.8% |
+0.7% |
2.5% |
2.0% |
2.6% |
5.6% |
1.7% |
4.3% |
Inflation Numbers
Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.2% and CPI at 2.7%.
In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers.
PPI for September came in at +1.1% higher than expected but core PPI came in at +0.1% lower than expected. Retail sales were up 0.6% better than expected. Employment for september were at +110,000 better than expected and previous month was revised to +89,000 (first number was -4,000). Factory orders were down 3.3% and ISM manufacturing came in at 52 a bit lower than previous month. ISM services came in at 54.8 a bit lower than previous month but still very solid.
Inflation numbers remain in good shape. Employment is not too strong not to weak. ISM manuf and services slowdown a bit but staying in there. So the FED has a good window opportunity to lower rates again at the end of October. So be prepared to another rate decrease by .25 soon.
The prime is now at 4.75 and could be lowered again next month.
The SP500 PE ratio is at 18.35 according to June results. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are in the middle of the range (16-20) with the best period of the year kicking in.