SP500 broked above recent trading range following FED announcement reducing interest rates. ND100 reamins the strongest of all markets with a solid uptrend going. ND100 broked above year high. DOW also broked above recent trading range and is challenging all time high.
Breaking above Trading Range
Last trades update
| Index Market |
Current Price |
2 weeks Change |
# cycles completed |
| SP500 |
1526.75 |
42.50 |
2 |
| ND100 |
2091.11 |
90.29 |
1 |
| Dow |
13896 |
463 |
2 |
SP500 Last Comment
SP500 finally broked above it's recent trading range following FED announcement lowering rates by .5%. SP500 stayed above 1490 since than which is a very good sign. Latest downtrend is now resolved and we should not expect any bad market condition for the rest if the year. SP500 is overbought at present time with RSI at 77 so can expect SP500 to set back in the coming week and get around moving average. After that we should see the uptrend to be resumed. Our 1380 support still stands well and should not be penetrated for a long while. We can also consider now that 1410 is more and more a solid support.
1380 is now our first support. 1325 is our next support.
ND100 Last Signal Comment
ND100 remains stronger of all markets and continues in a solid uptrend. It broked above year high of 2050. ND100 is quite overbought with an RSI reading of 83 so we can expect a short set back just under the upper band and then should resume uptrend.
We can consider that our first support is now at 1850, our next support at 1710 and the next one at 1450.
DOW Last Signal Comment
DOW also like SP500 broked above it's recent trading range and stayed above it which is very good sign. DOW is near all time high again and is very overbought with an RSI reading of 83. So we can expect a short term set back in the coming week and resume uptrend thereafter.
Our first support is now at 12800 and our next support is at 12100.
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each current position is used in each portfolio.
| Date |
Market |
Trade Type |
Description |
Symbol |
Strike Price |
Month |
Margin |
Amount |
Current |
Profit |
| 2007/09/21 |
SPX |
PUT Uncovered |
Sell PUT uncovered September SPX |
SXY |
|
November |
14000 |
470$ |
270$ |
200$ |
| 2007/09/21 |
RUT |
PUT Uncovered |
Sell PUT RUT November |
RUT |
|
November |
7000 |
370$ |
300$ |
70$ |
Always remember that you need between 12,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract.
Click here to find the options trading signals page.
Economic Current Conditions
Table of Economic Numbers
| Economic Info |
August 2007 |
July 2007 |
June 2007 |
May 2007 |
April 2007 |
March 2007 |
February 2007 |
January 2007 |
December 2006 |
November 2006 |
October 2006 |
September 2006 |
| PPI |
-1.4% |
+0.6% |
-0.2% |
+0.9% |
+0.7% |
+1.0% |
+1.3% |
-0.6% |
+0.9% |
+2.0% |
-1.6% |
-1.3% |
| Core PPI |
+0.2% |
+0.1% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
+0.4% |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+1.3% |
-0.9% |
+0.6% |
| Retail Sales |
+0.3% |
+0.5% |
-0.9% |
+1.5% |
-0.2% |
+1.0% |
+0.5% |
0.0% |
+0.9% |
+0.6% |
+0.1% |
-0.8% |
| CPI |
-0.1% |
+0.1% |
+0.2% |
+0.7% |
+0.4% |
+0.6% |
+0.4% |
+0.2% |
+0.5% |
0.0% |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
| Core CPI |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+0.2% |
+0.1% |
+0.2% |
+0.4% |
+0.2% |
+0.3% |
+0.2% |
0.0% |
+0.1% |
+0.2% |
| Housing Starts |
1.33M |
1.367M |
1.47M |
1.474M |
1.506M |
1.491M |
1.51M |
1.40M |
1.64M |
1.57M |
1.486M |
1.74M |
| Building Permits |
1.307 |
1.389M |
1.41M |
1.501M |
1.429M |
1.56(M |
1.53M |
1.568M |
1.60M |
1.51M |
1.535M |
1.638M |
| Employment |
-4,000 |
+68,000 |
132,000 |
+190,000 |
+88,000 |
+177,000 |
+113,000 |
+146,000 |
+206,000 |
+132,000 |
+79,000 |
148,000 |
| Durable Goods Orders |
-4.9% |
+6.1% |
+1.9% |
-2.8% |
+1.1% |
+3.4% |
+2.4% |
-7.8% |
|
+1.9% |
-8.3% |
+7.8% |
| Durable Goods Excluding Transportation |
|
+3.7% |
|
-1.0% |
|
+1.5% |
-0.4% |
-3.1% |
|
-1.1% |
-1.7% |
| New Homes Sales |
-8.0% |
+3.7% |
-6.5% |
-1.61% |
+16.2% |
+2.6% |
-4.0% |
-6.6% |
+12% |
+3.9% |
-4.0% |
| Existing Homes Sales |
5.50 Millions |
5.75 Millions |
5.76 Millions |
5.99 Millions |
6.01 Millions |
6.15 Millions |
6.68 Millions |
6.46 Millions |
6.22 Millions |
6.28 Millions |
6.24 Millions |
6.21 Millions |
| ISM Index(Manufacturing) |
52.9 |
53.8 |
56.0 |
55.0 |
54.7 |
50.9 |
52.3 |
49.3 |
51.4 |
49.5 |
51.2 |
52.9 |
| ISM Services |
55.8 |
55.8 |
60.7 |
59.7 |
56.0 |
52.4 |
54.3 |
59.0 |
56.7 |
58.9 |
57.1 |
52.9 |
Factory Orders |
|
+3.7% |
+1.0% |
-0.5% |
+0.5% |
+3.1% |
+1.0% |
-5.6% |
+2.4% |
+0.9 |
-4.5% |
-1.7% |
GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers
| 2nd Quarter 2007 |
1st Quarter 2007 |
4th Quarter 2006 |
3rd Quarter 2006 |
2nd Quarter 2006 |
1st Quarter 2006 |
4th Quarter 2005 |
3rd Quarter 2005 |
| +3.8% |
+0.7% |
2.5% |
2.0% |
2.6% |
5.6% |
1.7% |
4.3% |
Inflation Numbers
Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.2% and CPI at 2.7%.
In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers.
PPI for august was down 1.4% and core PPI was up 0.2%. CPI was down 0.1% and core CPI was up 0.2%. Housing starts was dwon 2.63% and building permits was down 5.9%. Existing home sales and new home sales were down near 8%. Durable good orders were down 4.9% and revised GDP for 2nd quarter was at 3.8%.
Real estate continue to go down even faster than expected. Inflation numbers remain in good shape. Durable good orders were lower than expected and GDP remains solid at 3.8%. So the FED decided to lower interest rates by .5% as we all know by now. But the good news is FED also said it is willing to lower again if signs of economic weakness continue to persist. And this is what we see here with those latest numbers. So be prepared to another rate decrease by .25 next month.
The prime is now at 4.75 and could be lowered again next month.
The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.94 according to June results. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we came near that level. This was the first bear market period since July 2002.