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Index Trading Weekly Update, Issue #091-- Breaking above trading range
September 29, 2007
Dear subscriber

INDEX TRADING WEEKLY UPDATE
September 28th 2007 Issue # 91
Written By Richard Bastien
Author of Index Trading System
© copywright besttradingsystems.com
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Please note that the next number will be October 13th. This is based on regular monthly revenu. In fact you will see my own real trades plus other possibilities to generate 20 - 25% growth every year no matter where the market is heading. More soon.

Breaking above Trading Range

SP500 broked above recent trading range following FED announcement reducing interest rates. ND100 reamins the strongest of all markets with a solid uptrend going. ND100 broked above year high. DOW also broked above recent trading range and is challenging all time high.

Breaking above Trading Range

Last trades update

Index Market Current Price 2 weeks Change # cycles completed
SP500 1526.75 42.50 2
ND100 2091.11 90.29 1
Dow 13896 463 2

SP500 Last Comment

SP500 finally broked above it's recent trading range following FED announcement lowering rates by .5%. SP500 stayed above 1490 since than which is a very good sign. Latest downtrend is now resolved and we should not expect any bad market condition for the rest if the year. SP500 is overbought at present time with RSI at 77 so can expect SP500 to set back in the coming week and get around moving average. After that we should see the uptrend to be resumed. Our 1380 support still stands well and should not be penetrated for a long while. We can also consider now that 1410 is more and more a solid support.

1380 is now our first support. 1325 is our next support.
ND100 Last Signal Comment

ND100 remains stronger of all markets and continues in a solid uptrend. It broked above year high of 2050. ND100 is quite overbought with an RSI reading of 83 so we can expect a short set back just under the upper band and then should resume uptrend.

We can consider that our first support is now at 1850, our next support at 1710 and the next one at 1450.



DOW Last Signal Comment

DOW also like SP500 broked above it's recent trading range and stayed above it which is very good sign. DOW is near all time high again and is very overbought with an RSI reading of 83. So we can expect a short term set back in the coming week and resume uptrend thereafter.

Our first support is now at 12800 and our next support is at 12100.
Special Option Strategy Update

Please note that the email service to signal new trades update will be now available to subscribers only. The service is no longer free. It yielded so far 15% in 7 months. So Order now

Our September 1350 and our September RUT PUT 710 were closed with our best profit of the year. So despite poor market conditions we managed to pull in a nice profit. New trades for november are now in. You now need to subscribe to our trading service to see the specifications. It is still time to enter. All our portfolio shows a 15% plus value since beginning of march so far.

Last signals review

Order now our trading service and go to the Trading Service page to see how each current position is used in each portfolio.

Date Market Trade Type Description Symbol Strike Price Month Margin Amount Current Profit
2007/09/21 SPX PUT Uncovered Sell PUT uncovered September SPX SXY November 14000 470$ 270$ 200$
2007/09/21 RUT PUT Uncovered Sell PUT RUT November RUT November 7000 370$ 300$ 70$

Always remember that you need between 12,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract.

Click here to find the options trading signals page. Economic Current Conditions

Table of Economic Numbers

Economic Info August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006
PPI -1.4% +0.6% -0.2% +0.9% +0.7% +1.0% +1.3% -0.6% +0.9% +2.0% -1.6% -1.3%
Core PPI +0.2% +0.1% +0.3% +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% +0.4% +0.2% +0.2% +1.3% -0.9% +0.6%
Retail Sales +0.3% +0.5% -0.9% +1.5% -0.2% +1.0% +0.5% 0.0% +0.9% +0.6% +0.1% -0.8%
CPI -0.1% +0.1% +0.2% +0.7% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4% +0.2% +0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5%
Core CPI +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.4% +0.2% +0.3% +0.2% 0.0% +0.1% +0.2%
Housing Starts 1.33M 1.367M 1.47M 1.474M 1.506M 1.491M 1.51M 1.40M 1.64M 1.57M 1.486M 1.74M
Building Permits 1.307 1.389M 1.41M 1.501M 1.429M 1.56(M 1.53M 1.568M 1.60M 1.51M 1.535M 1.638M
Employment -4,000 +68,000 132,000 +190,000 +88,000 +177,000 +113,000 +146,000 +206,000 +132,000 +79,000 148,000
Durable Goods Orders -4.9% +6.1% +1.9% -2.8% +1.1% +3.4% +2.4% -7.8% +1.9% -8.3% +7.8%
Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +3.7% -1.0% +1.5% -0.4% -3.1% -1.1% -1.7%
New Homes Sales -8.0% +3.7% -6.5% -1.61% +16.2% +2.6% -4.0% -6.6% +12% +3.9% -4.0%
Existing Homes Sales 5.50 Millions 5.75 Millions 5.76 Millions 5.99 Millions 6.01 Millions 6.15 Millions 6.68 Millions 6.46 Millions 6.22 Millions 6.28 Millions 6.24 Millions 6.21 Millions
ISM Index(Manufacturing) 52.9 53.8 56.0 55.0 54.7 50.9 52.3 49.3 51.4 49.5 51.2 52.9
ISM Services 55.8 55.8 60.7 59.7 56.0 52.4 54.3 59.0 56.7 58.9 57.1 52.9
Factory Orders +3.7% +1.0% -0.5% +0.5% +3.1% +1.0% -5.6% +2.4% +0.9 -4.5% -1.7%

GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers

2nd Quarter 2007 1st Quarter 2007 4th Quarter 2006 3rd Quarter 2006 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005
+3.8% +0.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.6% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3%

Inflation Numbers

Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.2% and CPI at 2.7%.

In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers.

PPI for august was down 1.4% and core PPI was up 0.2%. CPI was down 0.1% and core CPI was up 0.2%. Housing starts was dwon 2.63% and building permits was down 5.9%. Existing home sales and new home sales were down near 8%. Durable good orders were down 4.9% and revised GDP for 2nd quarter was at 3.8%.

Real estate continue to go down even faster than expected. Inflation numbers remain in good shape. Durable good orders were lower than expected and GDP remains solid at 3.8%. So the FED decided to lower interest rates by .5% as we all know by now. But the good news is FED also said it is willing to lower again if signs of economic weakness continue to persist. And this is what we see here with those latest numbers. So be prepared to another rate decrease by .25 next month.

The prime is now at 4.75 and could be lowered again next month.

The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.94 according to June results. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we came near that level. This was the first bear market period since July 2002.

This is it for this week and continue to monitor any signal change on the Index Trading Signals page

Richard Bastien

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