The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Please note that the next number will be August 18th. This is based on regular monthly revenu. In fact you will see my own real trades plus other possibilities to generate 15-20% growth every year no matter where the market is heading. More soon. Near Extreme Oversold SP500 reached it's first extreme oversold level and if it reaches 1411 monday we would hit 2% band offset which is a very extreme oversold level. All markets are highly oversold with RSI under 30. Near extreme oversold Last trades update Index Market Current Price 2 weeks Change # cycles completed SP500 1433.06 -101.04 2 ND100 1918.56 -117.32 1 Dow 13182 -669 2 SP500 Last Comment SP500 had 2 very bad weeks losing more then 110 points and is now highly oversold with a band offset of 1.49 which gives a first level oversold level. SP500 is at 22 points away (1411) to get a 2% band offset very extreme oversold. SP500 shows an RSI at 27. Financial sector is at 2.5% band offset and will rebound in a day or two. So we can expect next week a sharp rebound that could last 5-10 days. After that we will see another set back to retest the lowest point we will have once the rebound is started. 1460 support is now challenged and may not hold. 1460 is our first support. 1380 is now our second support. 1325 is our next support. ND100 Last Signal Comment ND100 had also a set back but at the same magnitude as SP500. It is also oversold however with an RSI at 30. It is following the broader market sentiment. Since it is not as oversold as others we can expect a continued set back for a few days followed by a short term recovery. We can consider that our first support is now at 1720, our next support at 1450 and the next one at 1400. DOW Last Signal Comment DOW like all other markets had a strong set back in the last 2 weeks. However it is just under it's lower band but is also oversold with an RSI at 30. So it is possible that DOW may fall a bit further and then recover sharply thereafter and follow what we said for SP500. Our first support is now at 12800 and our next support is at 12100. Special Option Strategy Update Please note that the email service to signal new trades update is now available. So all current subscribers will receive an email when a new trade is entered till end of september. Our September 1350 and our September RUT PUT 710 are in trouble. However since we are in near extreme oversold condition we will see a rebound real soon. RUT reached it's 2% band offset (2.40) and is at 1-3 days away from strong recovery. All our portfolio shows a near 10% plus value since beginning of march so far. Last signals review Go to the Trading Signals page to see how each current position is used in each portfolio. Go to the Options Trading History page to see trading history for each portfolio. Date Market Trade Type Description Symbol Strike Price Month Margin Amount Current Profit 2007/07/25 SPX PUT Uncovered Sell PUT uncovered September SPX 1350 SXY 1350 September 14160 700$ 2050$ -1350$ 2007/07/25 RUT PUT Uncovered Sell PUT RUT September 710 RUT 710 September 7515 700$ 1900$ -1200$ Always remember that you need between 12,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Click here to find the options trading signals page. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 PPI -0.2% +0.9% +0.7% +1.0% +1.3% -0.6% +0.9% +2.0% -1.6% -1.3% +0.1% Core PPI +0.3% +0.2% 0.0% 0.0% +0.4% +0.2% +0.2% +1.3% -0.9% +0.6% -04.% Retail Sales -0.9% +1.5% -0.2% +1.0% +0.5% 0.0% +0.9% +0.6% +0.1% -0.8% +0.2% CPI +0.2% +0.7% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4% +0.2% +0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% +0.2% Core CPI +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.4% +0.2% +0.3% +0.2% 0.0% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% Housing Starts 1.47M 1.474M 1.506M 1.491M 1.51M 1.40M 1.64M 1.57M 1.486M 1.74M 1.67M Building Permits 1.41M 1.501M 1.429M 1.56(M 1.53M 1.568M 1.60M 1.51M 1.535M 1.638M 1.72M Employment +92,000 132,000 +190,000 +88,000 +177,000 +113,000 +146,000 +206,000 +132,000 +79,000 148,000 188,000 Durable Goods Orders +1.4% -2.8% +1.1% +3.4% +2.4% -7.8% +1.9% -8.3% +7.8% -0.50% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation -1.0% +1.5% -0.4% -3.1% -1.1% -1.7% +0.1% New Homes Sales -6.5% -1.61% +16.2% +2.6% -4.0% -6.6% +12% +3.9% -4.0% +5.3% Existing Homes Sales 5.75 Millions 5.99 Millions 6.01 Millions 6.15 Millions 6.68 Millions 6.46 Millions 6.22 Millions 6.28 Millions 6.24 Millions 6.21 Millions 6.30 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 53.8 56.0 55.0 54.7 50.9 52.3 49.3 51.4 49.5 51.2 52.9 54.5 ISM Services 60.7 59.7 56.0 52.4 54.3 59.0 56.7 58.9 57.1 52.9 57 Factory Orders +0.6% -0.5% +0.5% +3.1% +1.0% -5.6% +2.4% +0.9 -4.5% -1.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 2nd Quarter 2007 1st Quarter 2007 4th Quarter 2006 3rd Quarter 2006 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 +3.4% +0.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.6% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3% Inflation Numbers Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.2% and CPI at 2.7%. In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. Existing home sales for June came in at 5.75 millions(-4%). New home sales were down 6% for June. Durable good orders for june were up 1.4% and factory orders were up 0.6%. ISM manufacturing came in at 53.8. Employment for July came in at +92,000 and GDP for 2nd quarter came in at +3.4%. Real estate market continue to slump which is a bit normal after 5 strong years. It will continue to go down for at least another year. Manufacturing data were a bit under expectations and employment was under expectations as well while GDP for 1st quarter was excellent. So economy seems to slow down a bit. This is not as bad as it may look and also this could also mean that we might see rate decrease by the end of the year while we were afraid to see new rate hikes. Financial results from several firms were quite inline with expectations in general. The prime remained at 5.25 and will stay there for a few more months. The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.19 according to March results which means that according to june results we would be under 17. We are getting near 16. So a market rebound is expected if we reach the 2% band offset soon. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are just over the middle. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market in september-october 2007. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.