The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Please note that the next number will be June 9th. This is based on regular monthly revenu. In fact you will see my own real trades plus other possibilities to generate 15-20% growth every year no matter where the market is heading. More soon. Divergences All markets continued their slow uptrend. All markets remains above their recent break out levels. We now can see the first negative divergences appearing on graphics. We now have support on all markets (SP500 at 1380 DOW at 12100 and ND100 at 1720). Uptrend continues Last trades update Index Market Current Price 2 weeks Change # cycles completed SP500 1515.73 9.88 0 ND100 1889.25 -9.54 0 Dow 13507 181 0 SP500 Last Comment SP500 remains above break out level of 1460 at 1515 (10 points gain for last 2 weeks) which is now considered as an official break out above 1460. In a way 1460 now becomes our first support. SP500 touched intraday all time high of 1530 reached march 2000 but could not pass over it. It is acting now as a resistance since we had a set back to 1505 from that point. This all time high should be reached real soon. We can now observe our first negative divergences in this current cycle which can possibly take us to the lower band (1480). We can expect another rebound from the moving average to retest all time high in next 2-3 weeks. 1460 is our first support. 1380 is now our second support. 1325 is our next support. ND100 Last Signal Comment ND100 reamins above 1840 resistance. ND100 is not as strong as SP500 and DOW. It is stagnating around 1900 and seems to build a resistance at this level. So we must be a bit cautious with this market. ND100 seems now to get into a trading range (1870 - 1910). Negative divergences are more important than SP500. It is possible that we might see a lower band touch soon in the coming 2 weeks. We can consider that our first support is now at 1720, our next support at 1450 and the next one at 1400. DOW Last Signal Comment DOW follows the same pattern as for SP500. DOW is also considered as an official break out above 12800. So 12800 is now our first support level. DOW now crossed 13500 last week. We saw here too the first negative divergences but they are less important than SP500. We saw very briefs set backs in the last 2 weeks but the uptrend was resumed rapidly. We can expect a brief set back to the moving average in the coming 2 weeks. Our first support is now at 12800 and our next support is at 12100. Special Option Strategy Update We rolled over Our SPX PUT June 1325 to July 1350 for a net profit of 195$ and our June RUT PUT 710 to July 710 for a net profit of 200$. New trades are OK for now with 8 weeks before expiration. All our portfolio shows a 6% plus value since beginning of march so far. Last signals review Go to the Trading Signals page to see how each current position is used in each portfolio. Go to the Options Trading History page to see trading history for each portfolio. Date Market Trade Type Description Symbol Strike Price Month Margin Amount Current Profit 2007/05/21 SPX PUT Uncovered Sell PUT uncovered July SPX 1350 SXY 1350 July 13770 270$ 310$ -40$ 2007/05/21 RUT PUT Uncovered Sell PUT RUT July 710 RUT 710 July 7355 255$ 180$ 75$ Always remember that you need between 12,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Click here to find the options trading signals page. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 Juin 2006 May 2006 PPI +0.7% +1.0% +1.3% -0.6% +0.9% +2.0% -1.6% -1.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.5% +0.2% Core PPI 0.0% 0.0% +0.4% +0.2% +0.2% +1.3% -0.9% +0.6% -04.% -0.3% +0.2% +0.3 Retail Sales -0.2% +1.0% +0.5% 0.0% +0.9% +0.6% +0.1% -0.8% +0.2% +1.4 -0.4% +0.1 CPI +0.4% +0.6% +0.4% +0.2% +0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% +0.2% +0.4% +0.2% +0.4% Core CPI +0.2% +0.4% +0.2% +0.3% +0.2% 0.0% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% Housing Starts 1.528M 1.491M 1.51M 1.40M 1.64M 1.57M 1.486M 1.74M 1.67M 1.795M 1.85M 1.953M Building Permits 1.429M 1.56(M 1.53M 1.568M 1.60M 1.51M 1.535M 1.638M 1.72M 1.747M 1.869M 1.946M Employment +88,000 +177,000 +113,000 +146,000 +206,000 +132,000 +79,000 148,000 188,000 121,000 124,000 92,000 Durable Goods Orders +0.6% +3.4% +2.4% -7.8% +1.9% -8.3% +7.8% -0.50% -2.4% +3.1% -0.3% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +1.5% -0.4% -3.1% -1.1% -1.7% +0.1% +0.5% +1.0% New Homes Sales +16.2% +2.6% -4.0% -6.6% +12% +3.9% -4.0% +5.3% -3.0% -4.5% -3.0% Existing Homes Sales 5.99 Millions 6.15 Millions 6.68 Millions 6.46 Millions 6.22 Millions 6.28 Millions 6.24 Millions 6.21 Millions 6.30 Millions 6.33 Millions 6.62 Millions 6.67 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 54.7 50.9 52.3 49.3 51.4 49.5 51.2 52.9 54.5 54.7 53.8 54.4 ISM Services 56.0 52.4 54.3 59.0 56.7 58.9 57.1 52.9 57 54.8 57.7 60.1 63.0 Factory Orders +3.1% +1.0% -5.6% +2.4% +0.9 -4.5% -1.7% -0.6% +1.2% +0.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 1st Quarter 2007 4th Quarter 2006 3rd Quarter 2006 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 1.3% 2.5% 2.0% 2.6% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3% Inflation Numbers Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.7% In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. CPI for april came in at +0.4% and core CPI came in at 0.2% as expected. Housing starts for april were up 2.5% better than expected. Building permits were down 9% far more than expected. Durable good orders were up 0.6% far lower than expected. New home sales jumped 16% du mostly to lower prices. Existing home sales were down 2.6%. Briefly real estate market continue to be weak. Inflation at consumer level is under control. So we still may think the FED will lower rates by the end of the year. The prime remained at 5.25 after this week FOMC meeting. Statement remains basicly the same. The SP500 PE ratio is at 18.43 according to december results. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we stay in the middle. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market in september-october 2007. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.