The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Please note that the next number will be March 31. Please note also that the trading signals service will be completely revamped towards the end of march. It will replace the current options signals page. It will be oriented towards portfolio management examples. This is based on regular monthly revenu. In fact you will see my own real trades plus other possibilities to generate 15-20% growth every year no matter where the market is haeding. More soon. Finding Support All markets stabilized in the last 2 weeks with some wild swings. From now on we will see much more volatility. All markets remain oversold (RSI around 30). We are finding support on all markets (SP500 at 1380 DOW at 12100 and ND100 at 1720). We had our short term rebound and all markets had a set back to current levels. I would not be surprised to see an attempt to start a new cycle real soon if the current support hold. Finding Support Last trades update Index Market Current Price 2 weeks Change # cycles completed SP500 1386.95 -0.22 0 ND100 1742.23 16.2 0 Dow 121104 -4 0 SP500 Last Comment SP500 had a few wild swings after the expected short term rebound just above 1400 to set back at current level where it looks like it is finding support at 1380. SP500 remains oversold (RSI reading at 30). If this support hold we might have the beginning of a new cycle. We did not have any cycle this year and the first one is now overdue. For sure the party is over and at best we will get into a sideways market. I would be surprised to see a full fledged bear market right after a long uptrend that brought a 20% increase from last july low. In the past after all long market advance we went into sideways markets for a minimum of 3 months before any major weaknesses. So don't panic and be patient. 1325 is now our first support. 1220 is our next support. 1170-1180 support level is our third support level. ND100 Last Signal Comment ND100 is holding up pretty well. This market just had a regular correction to the lower band and seems to build support at 1720 and seems ready to start a new cycle from the current level. With most of the sectors very weak this sector helps broader market to hold on. We can consider that our first support is now at 1450, our next support at 1400 and the next one at 1320. DOW Last Signal Comment DOW like SP500 is finding support at 12100 after some wild swings and is now under a buy signal. It is oversold with RSI at 31 and seems like we might have the start of a new cycle soon if our support holds on. We did not have a cycle this year in this market and we are now overdue. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our last SPX March PUT 1365 sold at 1.10$ managed to carry profit. Choosing the right strike price is the key with this strategy and we have another proof here. Last signals review Go to the Trading Signals page to see how each current position is used in each portfolio. Go to the Options Trading History page to see trading history for each portfolio. Date Market Trade Type Description Symbol Strike Price Month Margin Amount Current Profit 2007/03/16 SPX PUT Uncovered Sell PUT uncovered APRIL SPX 1270 SZP 1270 April 13100 400$ 400$ 0$ 2007/03/16 RUT PUT Uncovered Sell PUT RUT 690 RUY 690 April 7155 255$ 255$ 0$ Always remember that you need between 12,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Click here to find the options trading signals page. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 Juin 2006 May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 PPI +1.3% -0.6% +0.9% +2.0% -1.6% -1.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.5% +0.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% Core PPI +0.4% +0.2% +0.2% +1.3% -0.9% +0.6% -04.% -0.3% +0.2% +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 Retail Sales +0.1% 0.0% +0.9% +0.6% +0.1% -0.8% +0.2% +1.4 -0.4% +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% CPI +0.4% +0.2% +0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% +0.2% +0.4% +0.2% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% Core CPI +0.2% +0.3% +0.2% 0.0% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% Housing Starts 1.41M 1.64M 1.57M 1.486M 1.74M 1.67M 1.795M 1.85M 1.953M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M Building Permits 1.568M 1.60M 1.51M 1.535M 1.638M 1.72M 1.747M 1.869M 1.946M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M Employment +97,000 +146,000 +206,000 +132,000 +79,000 148,000 188,000 121,000 124,000 92,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 Durable Goods Orders -7.8% +1.9% -8.3% +7.8% -0.50% -2.4% +3.1% -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation -3.1% -1.1% -1.7% +0.1% +0.5% +1.0% +0.7% -1.1% New Homes Sales -6.6% +12% +3.9% -4.0% +5.3% -3.0% -4.5% -3.0% +4.6% -4.9% Existing Homes Sales 6.46 Millions 6.22 Millions 6.28 Millions 6.24 Millions 6.21 Millions 6.30 Millions 6.33 Millions 6.62 Millions 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 52.3 49.3 51.4 49.5 51.2 52.9 54.5 54.7 53.8 54.4 58.9 55.2% ISM Services 54.3 59.0 56.7 58.9 57.1 52.9 57 54.8 57.7 60.1 63.0 Factory Orders -5.6% +2.4% +0.9 -4.5% -1.7% -0.6% +1.2% +0.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 4th Quarter 2006 3rd Quarter 2006 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2.2% 2.0% 2.6% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% Inflation Numbers Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.7% In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. PPI was up more than expected for february. CPI however was inline with expectations. ISM manufacturing was back above 50 which is abit reassuring. ISM services was down to 54.3 down 5 points but still solid. Factory orders were down sharply more than expected. Employment was up 97,000 under expectations. Retail sales was up only 0.1% under expectations. Several numbers revive economic slowdown concern. FED might be thinking to decrease rates towards the end of the year if some numbers continue to show weakness. The crude is now back under 60$ giving some relief to the market. The prime is still at 5.25. With latest readings on CPI and PPI we can start to say that rates decrease might be for last quarter 2007. The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.65 according to september results. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are stay in the middle. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market in march april 2007. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.