The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Please note that the next number will be February 10th. Please note also that the trading signals service will be completely revamped towards the end of february. It will be oriented towards portfolio management examples. In fact you will see my own real trades plus other possibilities to generate 15-20% growth every year no matter where the market is haeding. More soon. Resistance SP500 Shows strong resistance at 1430. It tried again to get above it but failed. DOW is experiencing the same problem with 12600 level. ND100 is now in sideways pattern. Markets in trading range Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss 2 weeks Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell September 21 2006 1318.03 1422.18 -104.15 -8.61 2 ND100 Sell September 21, 2006 1634.87 1772.97 -138.10 -71.84 3 Dow Sell September 21 2006 11533 12487 -954 -69 2 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our current sell signal is way behind. SP500 is now experiencing resistance at 1430. 2 or 3 attempts have been made so far to get over it without success. We are still in a trading range (1405-1430) for the last 5 weeks. Moving average is almost flat confirming the trading range pattern. Continuation in that trading range is expected and now we have greater chances to see the market touching the lower band at about 1398 and give us a chance to enter. RSI reading is at 58 which is neutral. 1325 is now our first support. 1220 is our next support. 1170-1180 support level is our third support level. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our current sell signal is also way behind for now. ND100 after resuming upward had a strong set back under the moving average. It is now quite close to touch the lower band and giving us a buy signal. Not so good news about financial results for some firms are responsible. We can consider that our first support is now at 1450, our next support at 1400 and the next one at 1320. DOW Last Signal Comment We are now way behind on the current sell signal. DOW remains the strongest market of all. The uptrend slowed down a little and DOW is now experiencing a solid resistance at 12600. It is not yet in a trading range but it could swith to that pattern quite soon. RSI remains at 57 neutral. DOW is near all time high again. It is now around the moving average. Hard to say where it will go from there. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our new SPX February PUT 1340 sold at 1.10$ is about at the same price so far with 3 weeks before expiration. I don't expect any problem here. Always remember that you need between 12,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. XAU was exited at small profit. Index markets may give us a chance in the coming 2 weeks since they are near moving average at this time. RKH is not too far either. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info December 2007 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 Juin 2006 May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 PPI +0.9% +2.0% -1.6% -1.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.5% +0.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% Core PPI +0.2% +1.3% -0.9% +0.6% -04.% -0.3% +0.2% +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% Retail Sales +0.9% +0.6% +0.1% -0.8% +0.2% +1.4 -0.4% +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% CPI +0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% +0.2% +0.4% +0.2% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% Core CPI +0.2% 0.0% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% Housing Starts 1.64M 1.57M 1.486M 1.74M 1.67M 1.795M 1.85M 1.953M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M Building Permits 1.60M 1.51M 1.535M 1.638M 1.72M 1.747M 1.869M 1.946M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M Employment +167,000 +132,000 +79,000 148,000 188,000 121,000 124,000 92,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 Durable Goods Orders +1.9% -8.3% +7.8% -0.50% -2.4% +3.1% -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation -1.1% -1.7% +0.1% +0.5% +1.0% +0.7% -1.1% New Homes Sales +12% +3.9% -4.0% +5.3% -3.0% -4.5% -3.0% +4.6% -4.9% +18.0% Existing Homes Sales 6.22 Millions 6.28 Millions 6.24 Millions 6.21 Millions 6.30 Millions 6.33 Millions 6.62 Millions 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 51.4 49.5 51.2 52.9 54.5 54.7 53.8 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% ISM Services 58.9 57.1 52.9 57 54.8 57.7 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% Factory Orders +0.9 -4.5% -1.7% -0.6% +1.2% +0.7% -4.5% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 3rd Quarter 2006 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2.0% 2.6% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% Inflation Numbers Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.7% In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. PPI for december was up 0.9% and core PPI was up 0.2%. CPI was up 0.5% and core CPI was up 0.2% Housing starts and building permits were up quite strong as well as new home sales but existing home sales was down a little. Economic slowdown has reached a bottom and we can feel a revive in the economy. Inflation numbers are OK but we fear an increase which could force FED to increase rates. So FED will be forced to keep rates the way they are for quite a while. If it continues to improve we might even see new rate hikes. The crude took a slide down to 53$ very good for the market. The prime is still at 5.25. With latest readings on employment and retail sales we can start to say that rated decreases are quite far for 2007. The SP500 PE ratio is at 18.10 according to december results. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market in march april 2007. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.