The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Please note that the next number will be December 30th. Endless uptrend SP500 and DOW resumed their uptrend eliminating recent negative divergences. On top of that latest economic readings on inflation and retail sales were just perfect. So there is nothing for now to stop the party. Reading on ISM services were up and higher than expected erasing problems raised by ISM manufacturing. Endless uptrend Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss 2 weeks Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell September 21 2006 1318.03 1427.09 -109.06 30.38 2 ND100 Sell September 21, 2006 1634.87 1808.56 -173.69 33.44 3 Dow Sell September 21 2006 11533 12446 -913 251 2 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our current sell signal is way behind. SP500 resumed uptrend helped by upbeat eocnomic news on inflation retail sales and services sector. Resistance at 1400 was broken. We are 40 points away to have a 20% advance in one single cycle. Rarely SP500 made more than 22% in one single cycle before retreating al least to the lower band. So we probably have between 40 and 68 points left to this upmove started last july. RSI reading is at 81 very overbought. We can have very short set back which will be followed by retest to new highs. We were expecting SP500 to touch lower band but did not. 1325 is now our first support. 1220 is our next support. 1170-1180 support level is our third support level. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our current sell signal is also way behind for now. ND100 does not show the same strength as for SP500. It is now showing a resistance at 1810 and seems to get into a trading range. This market is getting more volatile and is also showing negative divergences. It is hard to tell what to expect from this market the weakest of all 3. We can consider that our first support is now at 1450, our next support at 1400 and the next one at 1320. DOW Last Signal Comment We are now way behind on the current sell signal. DOW like SP500 resumed uptrend. Same comments as for SP500 apply to this market. RSI is also at 81 very overbought. We might see very short set back followed by year high retest. Negative divergences continue to appear however in this market. But we don't expect any significant set back in the short term. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update We rolled over to a new position for January 1310 with a net credit of 2.30$. Now SPX january PUT 1310 worth 1.40$ which is already in the profit zone. Always remember that you need between 12,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. We had no trades in the past 2 weeks. Only BBH is near to be entered. So stay tuned for any signal. Index markets may give us a chance in the coming 2 weeks. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 Juin 2006 May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 PPI -1.6% -1.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.5% +0.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% Core PPI -0.9% +0.6% -04.% -0.3% +0.2% +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- Retail Sales +1.0% +0.1% -0.8% +0.2% +1.4 -0.4% +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% CPI 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% +0.2% +0.4% +0.2% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% Core CPI 0.0% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% Housing Starts 1.486M 1.74M 1.67M 1.795M 1.85M 1.953M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M Building Permits 1.535M 1.638M 1.72M 1.747M 1.869M 1.946M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M Employment +132,000 +79,000 148,000 188,000 121,000 124,000 92,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 Durable Goods Orders -8.3% +7.8% -0.50% -2.4% +3.1% -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation -1.7% +0.1% +0.5% +1.0% +0.7% -1.1% +0.6% New Homes Sales -4.0% +5.3% -3.0% -4.5% -3.0% +4.6% -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% Existing Homes Sales 6.24 Millions 6.21 Millions 6.30 Millions 6.33 Millions 6.62 Millions 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 49.5 51.2 52.9 54.5 54.7 53.8 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% ISM Services 58.9 57.1 52.9 57 54.8 57.7 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% Factory Orders -4.7% -1.7% -0.6% +1.2% +0.7% -4.5% +1.1% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 3rd Quarter 2006 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2.2% 2.6% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% Inflation Numbers Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.7% In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. CPI and core CPI for november came in unchanged way below expectations. Retail sales for november were up 1% better than expected. ISM services was up to near 59 much better than expected. Employment for november came in at 132,000 inline with expectations and factory orders were down 4.7% a bit lower than expected. While we have slowdown in the manufacturing sector accounting for 20% of GDP we have growth in the services sector which account for 80% of GDP. So we have some kind of balancing controlling a reasonnable growth for the economy with controlled inflation. This is almost too perfect ot be true. How long is this going to last. The crude came back above 60$ not good for the market. Lower prices were short lived as expected and prices are up again just like last year. The prime is still at 5.25. With latest readings on inflation numbers and bad economic readings we can start to say that rated decreases are uncertain about where it might take place next year. The SP500 PE ratio is at 19.11 according to september results. We can almost say that for december estimates we are at about 18.75 which is still considered low but less comfortable then earlier in the year. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.