The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Please note that the next number will be December 2nd. Runup resumed All markets recovered from recent pulled back and registered new year high pushed by lowered fears about inflation and continued strong financial results from several companies. Runup resumed Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss 2 weeks Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell September 21 2006 1318.03 1401.20 -83.17 36.90 2 ND100 Sell September 21, 2006 1634.87 1800.67 -65.80 96.69 3 Dow Sell September 21 2006 11533 12343 -810 357 2 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our current sell signal is way behind. SP500 recovered strongly from the recent pull back. The last pull back just under the moving average was in fact the beginning of our last cycle of the year. I thought for a while to give the sell signal but prefered to wait for a lower band touch which did not occur. Sorry about that. SP500 reached 1400 as forecasted. Recent number on inflations were good for the market and that explains the continued upward pattern. We now start to see negative divergences but considering we are in the best period of the year we will see higher marks before year end. 1325 is now our first support. 1220 is our next support. 1170-1180 support level is our third support level. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our current sell signal is also way behind for now. ND100 recovered also from the last set back under the moving average. It then rebounded nicely like all other markets. This market is now quite overbought and may set back again but it should be short term. ND100 reached 1800 and passed over previous year high of 1760. Another short term set back remains possible but we should see higher marks before year end. We can consider that our first support is now at 1450, our next support at 1400 and the next one at 1320. DOW Last Signal Comment We are now way behind on the current sell signal. DOW just like other markets recovered from recent set back under the moving average and is registering new all time highs almost every week. We had a chance to enter when it was under the moving average but we did not thinking it would touch the lower band. Too bad. It is now overbought and we may see a small set back soon but we will also see higher marks before year end. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our current postion for November PUT SPX 1220 sold at 1.40$ expired worthless yielding another nice profit. We now sell another uncovered PUT for december SPX 1325 at 1.10$. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. We had no trades in the past 2 weeks. Also RKH (financial index) BBH and GOLD are near to be entered. So stay tuned for any signal. All other markets are quite far to trigger a new entry. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 Juin 2006 May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 PPI -1.6% -1.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.5% +0.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% Core PPI -0.9% +0.6% -04.% -0.3% +0.2% +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% Retail Sales -0.2% -0.8% +0.2% +1.4 -0.4% +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% CPI -0.5% -0.5% +0.2% +0.4% +0.2% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% Core CPI +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% Housing Starts 1.77M 1.67M 1.795M 1.85M 1.953M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M Building Permits 1.62M 1.72M 1.747M 1.869M 1.946M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M Employment +92,000 148,000 188,000 121,000 124,000 92,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 Durable Goods Orders +7.8% -0.50% -2.4% +3.1% -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.1% +0.5% +1.0% +0.7% -1.1% +0.6% New Homes Sales +5.3% -3.0% -4.5% -3.0% +4.6% -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% Existing Homes Sales 6.30 Millions 6.33 Millions 6.62 Millions 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 51.2 52.9 54.5 54.7 53.8 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% ISM Services 57.1 52.9 57 54.8 57.7 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% Factory Orders -0.6% +1.2% +0.7% -4.5% +1.1% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 3rd Quarter 2006 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 1.6% 2.6% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% Inflation Numbers Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.7% In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. PPI for october came in at -1.9% and core PPI was down 0.9% much lower than expected. CPI was down 0.5% while core CPI was up only 0.1%. Latest inflation fears were diluted with the latest reading on CPI and PPI which were way under expectations raising hopes that rates might go down. For sure inflation fears went down for a while and this helped push the market higher this week. The crude went down to 56$ giving a good boost to the market. It is a lot lower now in the past 8 weeks and helping stock market. It might be short lived however just like last year. The prime is still at 5.25. With latest readings on inflation numbers and real estate market rate hikes are over. With latest economic data we can start to say that rated decreases will be delayed to later next year. The SP500 PE ratio is at 18.76 according to june results. We can almost say that for september estimates we are at about 18.25 which is still considered low but less comfortable then earlier in the year. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.