The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Please note that the next number will be November 18th. Short term correction underway All markets finally pulled back a little from their recent high. They all retreated back to their respective moving average(see Graphics below). Last economic numbers were mixed raising fears of new rate hikes. We might have a retreat to the lower band soon and getting buy signals from all markets. Short term correction underway Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss 2 weeks Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell September 21 2006 1318.03 1364.30 -46.27 -4.3 2 ND100 Sell September 21, 2006 1634.87 1703.98 -69.11 -5.6 3 Dow Sell September 21 2006 11533 11986 -453 -16.33 2 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our current sell signal is 46 points behind. SP500 finally pulled back from recent 1389 high. it is now just under the moving average and off overbought technical reading. We might see this market to reach the lower band and give us a buy signal. But we might have to enter before that. So stay tuned for any change with this market. We should see SP500 to reach 1400 before year end. The earning season delivered strong profits according to expectations. 1325 is now our first support. 1220 is our next support. 1170-1180 support level is our third support level. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our current sell signal is 69 points behind for now. ND100 also had a set back under the moving average. We might see this market to touch the lower band any time soon and give us a buy signal. However we might have to enter before that. So stay tuned for any change in this market. We should see a challenge to 1760 before year end. We can consider that our first support is now at 1450, our next support at 1400 and the next one at 1320. DOW Last Signal Comment We are now 453 points behind on the current sell signal. DOW just like other markets had a set back under the moving average and now off the recent overbought technical levels. We can see this market to touch the lower band in the coming 2 weeks and give us a buy signal. But here as well we might have to enter before that. So stay tuned for any change in this market. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our current postion for November PUT SPX 1220 sold at 1.40$ now woth 0.20$. We are just doing fine and will post another nice little profit. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. We had no trades in the past 2 weeks. All main indexes SPX DOW and QQQQ are not too far to give us an entry opportunity. Also RKH (financial index) is very near to be entered. So stay tuned for any signal. All other markets are quite far to trigger a new entry. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 Juin 2006 May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 PPI -1.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.5% +0.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% Core PPI +0.6% -04.% -0.3% +0.2% +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% Retail Sales +3.4% -0.4% +0.2% +1.4 -0.4% +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% CPI -0.5% +0.2% +0.4% +0.2% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% Core CPI +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% Housing Starts 1.77M 1.67M 1.795M 1.85M 1.953M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M Building Permits 1.62M 1.72M 1.747M 1.869M 1.946M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M Employment +92,000 148,000 188,000 121,000 124,000 92,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 Durable Goods Orders +7.8% -0.50% -2.4% +3.1% -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.1% +0.5% +1.0% +0.7% -1.1% +0.6% New Homes Sales +5.3% -3.0% -4.5% -3.0% +4.6% -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% Existing Homes Sales 6.30 Millions 6.33 Millions 6.62 Millions 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 51.2 52.9 54.5 54.7 53.8 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% ISM Services 57.1 52.9 57 54.8 57.7 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% Factory Orders -0.6% +1.2% +0.7% -4.5% +1.1% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 3rd Quarter 2006 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 1.6% 2.6% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% Inflation Numbers Year to year inflation according to core CPI is now at 2.7% In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. Retail sales for October were up 3.4% less than expected. New home sales for september were up 5.3% due to much lower prices. Durable good order were up 7.8% but excluding transport only 0.1%. GDP for 3rd quarter was up 1.6% much lower than expected. The ISM manufacturing came in at 51.2% under expectations. ISM services however was at 57.1 much higher than anticipated. Finally employment for october was at 92,000 and revised data for september was at 148,000. This employment data was higher than expected and also wages are going up faster than expected. We are now receiving mixed signals on the economy. Some indicated continued slowdown while others are indicating expansion (employment and services). This is raising some fears that rate hikes might resume or that rates decrease will be delayed later next year. The crude is still just under 60$ giving a small boost to the market. It is a lot lower now in the past 5 weeks and helping stock market. It might be short lived however just like last year. The prime is still at 5.25. With latest readings on inflation numbers and real estate market rate hikes are over. With latest economic data we can start to say that rated decreases will be delayed to later next year. The SP500 PE ratio is at 18.27 according to june results. We can almost say that for september estimates we are at about 17.85 which is still considered low but less comfortable then earlier in the year. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.