The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Please note that the next number will be October 7th. Double top in action Year high has been reached on both DOW and SP500 creating a perfect double top with negative divergences. The pattern we see on graphic between may and september is called DEATH VALLEY. This is a very dangerous pattern especially if it happens in september. ND100 tagged previous support of 1660 before setting back. So we are now on the sell side for all markets after profit taking. Double top in action Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss 2 weeks Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell September 21 2006 1318.03 1314.78 3.24 15.86 2 ND100 Sell September 21, 2006 1634.87 1622.37 12.50 47.66 3 Dow Sell September 21 2006 11533 11508/td> 25 116 2 SP500 Last Signal Comment We now have a new sell signal yielding a 78 points profit on the previous buy signal. So our current sell signal is 3 points ahead. SP500 tagged last may year high(1325) creating a perfect double top with negative divergences. At this time of the year it is very dangerous. We can now expect SP500 to slowly reach lower band in the 2-3 weeks to come. We may have some bounce back here and there in the same period. We are approaching the moving average for now. I don't expect however a full fledged bear market because this market is not overvalued with a pe under 18. We had 2 cycles so far and remember that we always have at least 3 cycles per year. So we are missing 1 cycle and we will have the beginning of it somewhere in october. 1220 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment We have a new sell signal since september 21 giving us a small 20 points profit with the previous buy signal. So this current sell signal is 12 points ahead for now. ND100 tagged the previous support of 1660 before turning down and we called the sell signal. We can now expect this market to head toward the lower band in the next 2-3 weeks. This market is hit quite hard this year which means we could have a very strong fall season with this market. We can consider that our first support is now at 1450, our next support at 1400 and the next one at 1320. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new sell signal last september 21 st giving us a 396 points profit. This is good considering a bad entry earlier. So we are now 25 points ahead on the current sell signal. DOW also reacted on a perfect double top just above 11600. We can expect this market to set back to the lower band in the next 2-3- weeks to come like our other 2 markets. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update We will wait may be another week before entering november. We want ot wait for the coming correction to get a better and safer entry. So stay tuned for next development with our option strategy. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. We had 3 XAU(Gold) trades this week. We had 2 goods and 1 bad. XAU remains close to be reentered again. BBH is not too far either. Considering that SP500 and DOW are now operating on double top we will have soon some opportunities in those market. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info August 2006 July 2006 Juin 2006 May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 PPI +0.1% +0.1% +0.5% +0.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% Core PPI -04.% -0.3% +0.2% +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% Retail Sales +0.2% +1.4 -0.4% +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% CPI +0.2% +0.4% +0.2% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% Core CPI +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% Housing Starts 1.67M 1.795M 1.85M 1.953M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M Building Permits 1.72M 1.747M 1.869M 1.946M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions Employment 128,000 121,000 124,000 92,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 Durable Goods Orders -2.4% +3.1% -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.5% +1.0% +0.7% -1.1% +0.6% New Homes Sales -4.5% -3.0% +4.6% -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 Existing Homes Sales 6.33 Millions 6.62 Millions 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 54.5 54.7 53.8 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% ISM Services 57 54.8 57.7 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% Factory Orders -0.6% +1.2% +0.7% -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 2.9% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. CPI for august was up 0.2% same with core CPI. This was less than expected.PPI for august was up 0.1% while core PPI was down 0.4% much lower than expected. Retail sales was up 0.2% lower than expected. Housing starts was down 6% and building permits were down 2.3%. All numbers above continue to show growth decelaration. We can add on top of that that the manufacturing philadelphia index came out very weak and we might have to face a much serious economic slow down than expected. Sure the inflation numbers are good but this is not enough. The crude is near 60$ giving a small boost. It is a lot lower now in the past 2 weeks and helping stock market. It might be short lived however just like last year. The prime is still at 5.25. With latest readings on inflation numbers and real estate market rate hikes are over. With latest economic data we can start to say that rated decreases might be closer than we think. The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.60 according to march results. We can almost say that for june estimates we are at about 17.25 which is still considered very low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.