The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Please note that the next number will be September 23rd. Markets weakening After a solid reattempt to reach year high (SP500 at 1314) markets setted back at 1300. DOW however remains above 11200 resistance level and may have a shot to year high in coming weeks. ND100 went higher as well but also retreated but remains in an uptrend. Markets weakening Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss 2 weeks Change # cycles completed SP500 Buy June 19th 2006 1240.13 1298.92 58.79 2.92 1 ND100 Buy June 1 2006 1616.57 1574.71 -41.86 17.01 2 Dow Buy July 11 2006 11134 11392/td> 258 108 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now 59 points ahead. SP500 remains above resistance of 1280. SP500 came close to reach year high of 1325 when it touched 1314. If it does we would be in a double top situation. We now see the beginning of negative short term divergences which is not good. If we have a touch to year high we might sell immediately considering that september is the worst month of the year. A sell signal is also possible short term if SP500 pulls back too much. SP500 is now near the moving average. 1220 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now 42 points behind. ND100 continue to go higher after reaching near 1600 before pulling back. ND100 is waekening and also showing negative short term divergences. I do believe we should have one last push upward before completing the current cycle. A sell signal remains possible if ND100 goes lower too fast. A reach to year high above 1700 is however quite remote in the current cycle. In the fall season we might see ND100 reach that level. This market is hit quite hard this year which means we could have a very strong fall season with this market. We can consider that our first support is now at 1450, our next support at 1400 and the next one at 1320. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new buy signal on July 11. We are now ahead 258 points with this buy signal. DOW like SP500 remains above resistance of 11200 helped by easing inflation news. It is now near the moving average. DOW also starts to show negative divergences short term but is stronger then other 2 markets. A reach to year high remains possible but if not done in the next 2 weeks we will face a sell signal. If we reach near 11600 we will take an early sell because september is the worst month of the year. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our September SPX 1200 naked put sold at 1.00$ now worth 0.20$. So far so good with 1 week before expiration. We will not get into october contract when the current trade is expired. We will get into november instead when SP500 will set back from current position. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. No new trades occured in the past 2 weeks. SPX and DOW are a bit far from being triggered. ND100 is also a bit far away. Gold (XAU) is only 5 points away to get triggered. Also RKH(financial) is not too far either. All other markets are far from being triggered. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info August 2006 July 2006 Juin 2006 May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 PPI +0.1% +0.5% +0.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% Core PPI -0.3% +0.2% +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% Retail Sales +1.4 -0.4% +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% CPI +0.4% +0.2% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% Core CPI +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% Housing Starts 1.795M 1.85M 1.953M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M Building Permits 1.747M 1.869M 1.946M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions Employment 128,000 121,000 124,000 92,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 Durable Goods Orders -2.4% +3.1% -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.5% +1.0% +0.7% -1.1% +0.6% New Homes Sales -4.5% -3.0% +4.6% -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 Existing Homes Sales 6.33 Millions 6.62 Millions 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 54.5 54.7 53.8 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% ISM Services 57 54.8 57.7 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% Factory Orders -0.6% +1.2% +0.7% -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 2.9% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. Factory orders for july were down 0.6%. Employment for august came in at + 128,000. ISM manufacturing index for august was down 0.2% and ISM services for august came in at 57 up near 4% from previous month. Employment was near expected level. Manufacturing continue to show weakness as well as factory orders. The services sector however is showing strength. But now investors start to worry about a too strong economic slowdown. The crude is now at 66$. It is a lot lower now in the past 2 weeks and helping stock market. It might be short lived however just like last year. The prime is now at 5.25. FED decided to stop rate hikes for now. With latest economic data we can say that rate hikes are over. we can even start to speculate about when interest rates will start to go down. It won't be before a couple of quarters. The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.89 according to march results. We can almost say that for june estimates we are at about 17.25 which is still considered very low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.