The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Please note that the next number will be September 9th. Break out above resistance Markets broked out above their long established resistance level. SP500 broked above resistance of 1280. ND100 had a strong push to reverse it's long term down trend. DOW also broked above resistance of 11200. Break out above resistance Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss 2 weeks Change # cycles completed SP500 Buy June 19th 2006 1240.13 1296.00 56.13 29.26 1 ND100 Buy June 1 2006 1616.57 1557.70 -58.87 70.96 2 Dow Buy July 11 2006 11134 11284 150 196 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now 56 points ahead. SP500 finally broked out above resistance of 1280 pushed by easing news on inflation. The new cycle is now 29 days old already. Hope to reach year high of 1325 is now revived. If it does we would be in a double top situation. A sell signal is also possible short term if SP500 puls back too much which I doubt for now. SP500 is now near the upper band. 1220 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now 59 points behind. ND100 ahd a strong push upward reversing it's long term down trend. It is a bit overbought at this time but I do believe it will continue upward for a while to get above 1600 in the weeks to come. A reach to year high above 1700 is however quite remote in the current cycle. In the fall season we might see ND100 reach that level. This market is hit quite hard this year which means we could have a very strong fall season with this market. We can consider that our first support is now at 1450, our next support at 1400 and the next one at 1320. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new buy signal on July 11. We are now ahead 150 points with this buy signal. DOW like SP500 broked out above resistance of 11200 helped by easing inflation news. It is now near the moving average. So like SP500 either we get a sell signal soon or we have a reattempt to year high of 11600 in the coming weeks. I do believe we will have first an attempt to year high and be in a double top situation then. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update We cashed in on our August 1170 PUT sold at 2.90$. We entered a September SPX 1200 naked put at 1.00$. So far so good with 3 weeks before expiration. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. No new trades occured in the past 2 weeks. SPX and DOW are a bit far from being triggered. ND100 is also a bit far away. BBH is about 3 points away to be triggered as well. All other markets are far from being triggered. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info July 2006 Juin 2006 May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 PPI +0.1% +0.5% +0.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Core PPI -0.3% +0.2% +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% Retail Sales +1.4 -0.4% +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% CPI +0.4% +0.2% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% Core CPI +0.2% +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% Housing Starts 1.795M 1.85M 1.953M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M Building Permits 1.747M 1.869M 1.946M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions Employment +113,000 124,000 92,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 Durable Goods Orders -2.4% +3.1% -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.5% +1.0% +0.7% -1.1% +0.6% +4.2 New Homes Sales -4.5% -3.0% +4.6% -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% Existing Homes Sales 6.33 Millions 6.62 Millions 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 54.7 53.8 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% ISM Services 54.8 57.7 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% Factory Orders +1.2% +0.7% -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 2nd Quarter 2006 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 2.5% 5.6% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% In the last 2 weeks we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. PPI was only +0.1% and Core PPI was down 0.3%. CPI was up 0.4% while core CPI eased at +0.2%. Housing starts were down 2.5% and building permits were also down 6.5%. New home sales were down 4.5% and existing home sales were sharply down 4%. Durable good orders were down 2.4%. Most numbers are lower than expected and confirm the economic slowdown which is stronger than anticipated. For sure rate hikes are over. But now investors start to worry about a too strong economic slowdown. The crude is now near 72$. It is starting to be a concern for economic growth now. The prime is now at 5.25. FED decided to stop rate hikes for now. With latest economic data we can say that rate hikes are over. we can even start to speculate about when interest rates will start to go down. It won't be before a couple of quarters. The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.83 according to march results. We can almost say that for june estimates we are at about 17.25 which is still considered very low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.