The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Markets finding support SP500(1220-1230) and DOW(10700-10800) have established support this week. Nasdaq continues on it's weakness but is more highly oversold(RSI at 22) and a rebound is expected this week. All sectors except the ones related to tech are in control which indicates a transition now to a sideways market. SP500 near lower band and in line with support zone of 1220-1230.. ND100 went lower this week on bad financial results. It is highly oversold. DOW back to lower band as well and finding support at 10700. Markets finding support Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Buy June 19th 2006 1240.13 1240.29 0.16 4.09 1 ND100 Buy June 1 2006 1616.57 1451.88 -164.9 -10.29 2 Dow Buy July 11 2006 11134 10868 -266 129.03 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now even. SP500 had a good rebound wednesday but gave back some. SP500 is finding support around 1230 and seems ready for a short rally. Considering that several sectors like financial, biotech and brokers dealer are in control, we should have soon a short term rally to give us our second cycle which is overdue now. So let's see what happen. This is the 11th week since this down market started. We are also in transition to go to a sideways market pattern. It is still possible to see in the coming 4-6 weeks a challenge to the last year high of 1325. 1220 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now 165 points behind. ND100 came 3 points shy to be closed out on a stop. Bad financial news clubbered that market a little more so much that we are now very highly oversold (RSI at 22). We can expect any time now a rebound in this market. It will be a big loss this time but the next 2 cycles could also be very strong gains. This was the 11th week of downtrend. This market is hit quite hard this year which means we could have a very strong fall season with this market. We can consider that our first support is now at 1400, our next support at 1320. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new buy signal on July 11. We are already behind 266 points with this buy signal. This was a very bad call so far. DOW had a good rebound in the middle of the week but gave back some to get back to the lower band. We now have good support at 10700 and we are in transition to go to a sideways pattern. In fact this is the same pattern as the SP500. I am still confident that we will see a challenge to new high in the coming 4-6 weeks. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our August 1170 PUT sold at 2.90$ now worth 5.30$. We recovered a little. It could be in trouble if market falls deeper. We are still 20 points below the 2% band offset with 4 weeks before expiration. We should be OK. So stay tuned for any change with this. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. We closed 4 trades this week SPX and DOW were successfull and the nasdaq ahd one losing and one winning trades. BBH is near getting a new signal. We just opened a new position on QQQQ friday. DOW and SPX are closed to be reentered as well. Gold is also closed to be reentered. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info Juin 2006 May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 PPI +0.5% +0.2% +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged Core PPI +0.2% +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% Retail Sales -0.1% +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% CPI +0.2% +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% Core CPI +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% Housing Starts 1.85M 1.953M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M Building Permits 1.862M 1.946M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions Employment 121,000 92,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 Durable Goods Orders -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.7% -1.1% +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% New Homes Sales +4.6% -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% Existing Homes Sales 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 53.8 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% ISM Services 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% Factory Orders +0.7% -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 5.3% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. PPI for june came in at +0.5% with core PPI at +0.2%. CPI for june came in at +0.2% with core PPI at +0.3%. Housing starts were down 5.2% and building permits were also down 4.3%. Inflation numbers did not surprise anyone and the housing numbers continue to slow down. Again those numbers tends to say we are slipping into economic slowdown despite higher inflation. The crude is now under 75$. It is starting to be a concern for economic growth now. The prime is now at 5.25. Fed said this week that economic slowdown should be reflected soon in inflation numbers which tend to say that rate hikes are near the end. They will continue to look at economic data to make their decisions. The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.35 according to march results. We can almost say that for june estimates we are at under 17 which is still considered very low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.