The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Short term set back All markets setting back a little as forecasted. SP500 setting back as expected building a base to start new cycle. ND100 retesting support at 1530. 1530 is now more and more a support line. DOW setting back as well near giving a reversing buy signal again. Short term set back Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Buy June 19th 2006 1240.13 1265.48 25.35 -4.72 1 ND100 Buy June 1 2006 1616.57 1533.71 -82.86 -41.52 2 Dow Sell June 15 2006 11015 11091 -76 -60 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now ahead 25 points. SP500 had a small set back as expected and is almost in position to start a new cycle. We might have one extra down day without being sure of that. Our current downtrend will be reversed if we go over 1280 in the coming days. This is the 9th week since this down market started. So far we had only 1 cycle and we are near mid july. A new cycle is in the works and could start any time now. We might see in the coming 4-6 weeks a challenge to the last year high of 1325. 1220 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now 83 points behind. ND100 had a bigger set back than the 2 other markets. It is rechallenging the latest 1530 support again. We can see on the graphic a quite important support line at that level. Attempt to reverse downtrend failed a little but 1530 will be the base for a new cycle. We now have several positive divergences on technical indicators which is very positive for the short term. This was the 9th week of downtrend. I continue to believe we will have a good summer rally in the coming 4-6 weeks. This market is hit quite hard this year which means we could have a very strong fall season with this market. We can consider that our first support is now at 1530, our next support at 1500 and the next one is at 1410. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new sell signal on June 16. We are now behind 75 points with this sell signal. Dow is in preparation to reverse the current downtrend. We are close to get a new buy signal. If we get in contact with the moving average this will be it. So stay tuned for any development with DOW. Forecasted small set back occured and we can almost say that we will see a challenge to new high in the coming 4-6 weeks. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our last SPX July 1100 PUT sold at around 2.40$ now worth about 0.10$. Considering the current reversal in the market and the set back we had as forecasted we can then go ahead with the follwing strategy. We will rollover our current july 1100 PUT for an August 1170 PUT at 3.00$ for a net credit of about 2.85-2.90. Ask your broker on how to place a rollover trade. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. We had no new trades this week after recent market recovery. The closest market to give us trade opportunity are RKH(Financial index and QQQQ(Nasdaq). So watch for those opportunities. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info Juin 2006 May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 PPI +0.2 +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged Core PPI +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% Retail Sales +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% CPI +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% Core CPI +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% Housing Starts 1.957M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M Building Permits 1.932M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions Employment 121,000 92,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 Durable Goods Orders -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.7% -1.1% +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% New Homes Sales +4.6% -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% Existing Homes Sales 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 53.8 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% ISM Services 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% Factory Orders +0.7% -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 5.3% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we had 3 major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. June employment number came in at 121,000 lower than expected. ISM manufacturing activity were at 53.8% lower than previous month. Factory orders for may were up 0.7%. Again those numbers tends to say we are slipping into economic slowdown despite higher inflation. The crude is now at almost 75$. It continues to stay high but seems not being a concern. The prime is now at 5.25. Fed statement was almost the same not knowing when they can stop rate hiking. They will continue to look at economic data to make their decisions. The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.70 according to march results. We can almost say that for june estimates we are at near 17.2 which is still considered low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.