The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed New Cycle ? All markets on strong rebound and setting base for a new cycle. SP500 touching the upper band for the fitst time in 2 months making a serious attempt to reverse downtrend. ND100 saved support at 1530 and had a solid rebound as well. DOW had also a strong rebound and is about to reverse downtrend. New Cycle ? Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Buy June 19th 2006 1240.13 1270.20 30.07 25.70 1 ND100 Buy June 1 2006 1616.57 1575.23 -41.34 23.98 2 Dow Sell June 15 2006 11015 11150 -135 161 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now ahead 30 points. SP500 had a strong rebound and now have a solid base to start a new cycle which might be already started. Our current downtrend is almost reversed and I guess we will have to wait a week to make sure. 1220 was not tested and should not be challenged for a long time now. This is the 8th week since this down market strated. It is not completely reversed yet but almost. It is possible we might see a small set back in the coming days but I do believe we have a new cycle started. We might see in the coming 4-6 weeks a challenge to the last year high of 1325. 1170-1180 support level is our first support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now 41 points behind. It is recovering nicely and should get back in the profit zone soon. 1530 support held very well and is now the base of a new cycle. ND100 is now reversing this 8th week of downtrend. We can expect a small set back in the coming days but I do believe we will have a good summer rally in the coming 4-6 weeks. This market is hit quite hard this year which means we could have a very strong fall season with this market. We can consider that our first support is now at 1530, our next support at 1500 and the next one is at 1410. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new sell signal on June 16. We are now behind 135 points with this sell signal. Dow is now reversing the current downtrend. Retest to the recent lows of 10700 did not come. We missed a new buy signal by very little and we will wait for a small correction to get in. So stay tuned for any development with DOW. We do expect a small set back with DOW in the coming days but we can almost say that we will see a challenge to new high in the coming 4-6 weeks. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our last SPX July 1100 PUT sold at around 2.40$ now worth about 0.30$. Things are perfectly well so far here with 3 weeks before expiration. We might decide if market sets back a little to rollover to a closer strike price still in july. So stay tuned for any new specification with this strategy. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. This week we had 2 new profits taking. The first one was with BBH carrying a profit of 140$ and a second one with RKH (Financial index) of 60$. We have no new entries at this point. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 PPI +0.2 +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged Core PPI +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% +0.1% Retail Sales +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% 0.3% CPI +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% - 0.01% Core CPI +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% + 0.01% Housing Starts 1.957M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M + 0.02% Building Permits 1.932M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions 2.11 Millions Employment 75,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 104,000(revised) Durable Goods Orders -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% +1.5% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.7% -1.1% +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% +2.6% New Homes Sales +4.6% -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% +6% Existing Homes Sales 6.67 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions 7.35 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% 53.8% ISM Services 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% 62.2% Factory Orders -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% +0.9% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 5.3% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we had 2 major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. May new home sales came in at +4.6%. Existing home sales were 1.2% lower. Those numbers again confirm economic slowdown. But this is in conflict with last inflation numbers running above 3% on yearly basis. The crude is now at 74$. It continues to stay high but seems not being a concern. The prime is now at 5.25. We had as expected a new .25 rate hike. Fed statement was almost the same not knowing when they can stop rate hiking. They will continue to look at economic data to make their decisions. The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.77 according to march results. We can almost say that for june estimates we are at near 17.2 which is still considered low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.