The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Attempt to find a bottom All markets very quiet this week trying to find a bottom. SP500 now going sideways and in preparation to start a new cycle. ND100 seems to find support at 1530 and building a base to start a new cycle. DOW can also give us a new buy signal anytime now. DOW is also building support around 10700. Attempt to find a bottom Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Buy June 19th 2006 1240.13 1244.50 4.37 -7.04 1 ND100 Buy June 1 2006 1616.57 1551.05 -65.52 -11.79 2 Dow Sell June 15 2006 11015 10989 26 -25 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal given this week is now ahead 4 points. Our previous sell signal ended with a small profit of 16 points. SP500 was rather quiet this week. It seems like SP500 is building a base to start a new cycle somewhere in july as forecasted before. 1220 might be tested again which would give us a double bottom. This is the 7th week in this down market. It is not reversed yet but we could see a sign of that next week. A prolonged market slowdown last between 8 and 14 weeks. My guess is that this one will be around the low end of that range. We should have a new cycle starting somewhere in july. 1170-1180 support level is our first support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now 65 points behind. 1530 support is so far holding which could be the base for the start of a new cycle. ND100 is in a first phase to reverse this 7th week of downtrend. If in the next week 1530 support holds again we might have that base. ND100 continues to show positive divergences despite the fact we reach a new low every 2-3 weeks. This might be the base for the beginning of a new cycle. This market is hit quite hard this year which means we could have a very strong fall season with this market. We can consider that our first support is now at 1530, our next support at 1500 and the next one is at 1410. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new sell signal on June 16. We are now ahead 26 points with this sell signal. Dow is also in a preparation phase to reverse the current downtrend. It is possible we might have a retest to the recent lows of 10700 in the coming weeks which would be the base to start a new cycle. However a new buy signal can occur before that if the DOW retreats an extra 100 points from the current level. So stay tuned for new buy signal with this market. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our last SPX July 1100 PUT sold at around 2.40$ now worth about 1.15$. Things are perfectly well so far here with 4 weeks before expiration. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options and Eminis trading Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. We have a new entry running with BBH which is already close to yield profit. We also have a new entry at end of day friday with new market RKH(Financial Index). We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 PPI +0.2 +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged Core PPI +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% +0.1% Retail Sales +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% 0.3% CPI +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% - 0.01% Core CPI +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% + 0.01% Housing Starts 1.957M 1.863M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M + 0.02% Building Permits 1.932M 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions 2.11 Millions Employment 75,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 104,000(revised) Durable Goods Orders -0.3% -4.7% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% +1.5% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.7% -1.1% +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% +2.6% New Homes Sales -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% +6% Existing Homes Sales 6.76 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions 7.35 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% 53.8% ISM Services 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% 62.2% Factory Orders -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% +0.9% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 5.3% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we had 3 major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. May housing starts came in 5% higher than last month. May building permits were down 2% from last month. May durable good orders were down 0.3% from last month. This was the second month in a row showing weakness in this sector. Those numbers again confirm economic slowdown. But this is in conflict with last inflation numbers running above 3% on yearly basis. The crude is still at 70$. It continues to stay high but seems not being a concern. The prime is now at 5.00. Fed statement was that considering such a strong economy other rate hikes might be needed despite economic slowdown. In the coming week we will probably have another hike of .25. We will be looking for Fed comments to try to find when this will be over. The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.41 according to march results. We can almost say that for june estimates we are at near 17.0 which is still considered low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.