The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Rebound as expected All markets finally rebound. SP500 went through temporary support of 1250 but rallied above it late in the week. ND100 tested the 1530 mid term support and rallied above it. DOW rallied too after strong fallout. Rebound as expected Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell June 15th 2006 1256.16 1251.54 4.62 -0.76 1 ND100 Buy June 1 2006 1616.57 1562.84 -53.73 11.87 2 Dow Sell June 15 2006 11015 11014 1 123 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our lat sell signal is now ahead 5 points. Our previous buy signal ended with a loss of 38 points. SP500 sanked hard at the beginning of the week to rally real strong after as forecasted last week. Tensions about inflation remain in investor mind. SP500 went through 1250-1260 support line to come back just above. Our short term double bottom did not do any good. Despite the recent recovery we are still in a downtrend and I do expect a possible retest to the recent low of 1220. We are in the 6th week of this market slowdown. A prolonged market slowdown last between 8 and 14 weeks. My guess is that this one will be around the low end of that range. We should have a new cycle starting somewhere in july. So far our 1250 support is being tested and may not hold. 1250 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now 54 points behind. ND100 tested 1530 support and rebounded above late in the week. ND100 managed to gain 10 points for the week. We can expect a retest to recent low of 1516. ND100 starts to show positive divergences despite the fact we reach a new low every 2-3 weeks. This might be the base for the beginning of a new cycle that could start in 2-3 weeks. This market is hit quite hard this year which means we could have a very strong fall season with this market. We can consider that our first support is now at 1530, our next support at 1500 and the next one is at 1410. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new sell signal on June 16. We had a loss of 180 points with the previous buy signal. We are now ahead 1 points with this sell signal. Dow had a short term rebound as expected. Like other markets we can expect it to retest recent lows of 10700 in the coming weeks. 10650 support might be tested. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update We were saved by the bell with Our JUNE PUT 1235 and be able to keep our 2.00$ profit thanks to the short term rebound we were expecting. So now we can enter a new trade which is sell for opening a SPX July 1100 PUT at around 2.40$. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options and Eminis trading Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. We had new trades for DOW and SPX with both coming at profits. The previously entered trade with DOW is a complete loss. Trades with Nasdaq and SMH are complete loss as well. SMH will be dropped from our covered markets as well as PPH. I inserted a new market which is the financial Index (RKH). This is a very good market. We now have new target numbers for all our covered markets. See full instructions on options signals page for more details. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info May 2006 April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 PPI +0.2 +0.9% +0.5% -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged Core PPI +0.3 +0.1% +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% +0.1% Retail Sales +0.1 +0.8% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% 0.3% CPI +0.4% +0.6% +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% - 0.01% Core CPI +0.3% +0.3% +0.2 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% + 0.01% Housing Starts 1.85M 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M + 0.02% Building Permits 1.98M 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions 2.11 Millions Employment 75,000 126,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 104,000(revised) Durable Goods Orders -4.8% +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% +1.5% Durable Goods Excluding Transportation -1.1% +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% +2.6% New Homes Sales -4.9% +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% +6% Existing Homes Sales 6.76 Millions 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions 7.35 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 54.4 58.9 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% 53.8% ISM Services 60.1 63.0 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% 62.2% Factory Orders -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% +0.9% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 5.3% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we had 5 major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. PPI came in at +0.2% and core PPI at +).3%. CPI came in at +0.4% and core CPI at +0.3%. Retail sales were up only 0.1%. PPI and CPI are giving us mixed signals and remained a bit high. It is more than obvious that there will be a rate hike in 2 weeks. After that very hard to say. The crude is at 70$. It continues to stay high but seems not being a concern. The prime is now at 5.00. Fed statement was that considering such a strong economy other rate hikes might be needed despite economic slowdown. The SP500 PE ratio is at 17.50 according to march results. We can almost say that for june estimates we are at near 17.0 which is still considered low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.