The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Markets setting back All markets setting back strong following Fed statement and lower than expected retial sales. SP500 stops uptrend and now near lower band. ND100 gave buy signal thursday and is now oversold. DOW also setting back but less than other markets. For now remains in it's slow uptrend. Markets setting back Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell December 29th 2005 1254.42 1291.24 -36.92 -34.52 0 ND100 Buy May 11 2006 1657.48 1635.81 -21.66 -78.03 2 Dow Sell April 7 2006 11120 11381 -261 -197 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last sell signal continue to lag behing. SP500 reacted negatively on Fed statement saying they might apply more rate hikes in the near future. Retail sales were also lower than expected. So the last breakout above 1310 is now considered a false breakout and all of the sudden we are now 7 points away to get a buy signal. This market is now close to be oversold (RSI at 40). The short term retreat we were expecting was stronger than expected and this time we should get a touch to the lower band at around 1285 and give us a buy signal. 1250 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment We had a new buy signal this week and it is now behind 21 points. We had a 2.5% profit on our last sell signal. ND100 had a very bad week losing 78 points in the last 3 days. It is now oversold and we should have a short term rebound any time soon. It is an excellent opportunity for our option short term trading. We can consider that our first support is now at 1640 followed by another one at 1530, our next support at 1500 and the next one is at 1410. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new sell signal on April 7th. We are now behind 260 points with this new sell signal. Dow also had a set back this week but not at the same magnitude as our other markets. DOW remains in it's slow uptrend and may rebound next week. However it might be the end of this uptrend considering general weaknesses all over the stock market. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our JUNE PUT 1235 sold at around 2.00$ now worth 2.80$. We are a little bit behind but nothing to worry about for now with 5 weeks before expiration. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options and Eminis trading Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. This week we have 2 currently active trades with QQQQ. They should be closed somewhere this week. We also have a new entry on friday for SMH(Semi conductor index). See full instructions on options signals page for more details. SPX is only 7 points away to give us an opportunity. PPH and BBH are not too far either. Always take a look at the options signals page every day. HHH (Internet Index) will be covered in the weeks to come. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 Apr 2005 PPI +0.5 -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged -0.06% Core PPI +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% +0.1% + 0.01% Retail Sales +0.5% +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% 0.3% + 1.5% CPI +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% - 0.01% + 0.5% Core CPI +0.3 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% + 0.01% Unchanged Housing Starts 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M + 0.02% Building Permits 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions 2.11 Millions 2.15 Millions Employment 138,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 104,000(revised) 275,000 Durable Goods Orders +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% +1.5% + 6.4%(revised) Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% +2.6% +0.9%(revised) New Homes Sales +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% +6% + 2.1% Existing Homes Sales 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions 7.35 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% 53.8% 51.4% ISM Services 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% 62.2% Factory Orders -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% +0.9% +0.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.8% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we had one major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. Retail sales came in at +0.5% for April which was lower than expected and contributed to trigger a selloff on the market. As we noticed in the past week we had numbers dangerous for inflation and many others not. It looks like a balanced economy. The stock market remains cautious and is not overvalued at all. The crude is now at 70$. It continues to stay high but seems not being a concern since retail sales remain strong. The prime is now at 5.00. Fed statement was that considering such a strong economy other rate hikes might be needed. Economic data will be watched closely as they come to help make decision. Investors were expecting something else and it triggered a selloff on the market. The SP500 PE ratio is at 18.06 according to december results. We can almost say that for march estimates we are at near 17.2 which is still considered low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.