The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Markets resume uptrend All markets resumes their slow uptrend pattern on non inflationatary employment data. SP500 resuming uptrend with new year high breaking out above 1310 resistance line. ND100 came close to rebuy but rebounded like other markets. DOW continues up strong registering new year high with a lot of accumulation. Markets resume uptrend Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell December 29th 2005 1254.42 1325.76 -71.34 15.15 0 ND100 Sell April 28 2006 1700.71 1713.84 -13.13 +13.13 1 Dow Sell April 7 2006 11120 11578 -458 211 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last sell signal continue to lag behing. SP500 was quiet until employment data came in lower than expected which pushed it higher friday. We now have a new year high and also a break out above 1310 resistance line lasting for 2 months. This market is now overbought. We can expect a short term retreat, however this year looks more and more like 1995 where we had a complete up year with a few pauses. Economy remains strong but not too strong. SP500 PE (18.40) remains rather low and not overvalued at all. Financial results are so far above expectations and is sustaining the market. So We can take any short term set back to start buying. If you do so take profit more often. 1250 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our new sell signal is now behind 13 points. ND100 had also a fair rebound last friday but not in the same magnitude of SP500 and DOW. Several sub sectors remain weak. Technicaly ND100 is neutral not overbought, not oversold. It is hard to say what will happen next week. We have on the graphic a small down trend lasting 3 weeks. It might be reversed with a solid week but it can't be sure. We can consider that our first support is now at 1640 followed by another one at 1530, our next support at 1500 and the next one is at 1410. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new sell signal on April 7th. We are now behind 458 points with this new sell signal. Dow made new year high last friday with a lot of strength resuming it's latest uptrend. All comments said for SP500 can be applied to this market. DOW however is even stronger. Take any short set back opportunity to buy. Take also short profit if you do so. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our MAY PUT 1225 sold at about 1.35$ now worth 0.10$. Since this position worths almost nothing now we suggest here a rollover. So we buy back our MAY PUT 1225 at about 0.10 and SELL a JUNE PUT 1235 at around 2.00$ for a net credit of 1.90$. Ask your broker on how to place that trade. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options and Eminis trading Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. This week we had another trade with BBH opened May 2nd and sold at 180$ profit on May 4th. See history on options signals page for more details. For now all our markets are far from giving us a new trade opportunity. But we never know and always take a look at the options signals page every day. Also take note that SMH (Semi conductor index) is now covered. HHH (Internet Index) will be covered in the weeks to come. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info April 2006 Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 Apr 2005 PPI +0.5 -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged -0.06% Core PPI +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% +0.1% + 0.01% Retail Sales +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% 0.3% + 1.5% CPI +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% - 0.01% + 0.5% Core CPI +0.3 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% + 0.01% Unchanged Housing Starts 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M + 0.02% Building Permits 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions 2.11 Millions 2.15 Millions Employment 138,000 200,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 104,000(revised) 275,000 Durable Goods Orders +6.1% +3.4% -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% +1.5% + 6.4%(revised) Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% +2.6% +0.9%(revised) New Homes Sales +18.0% -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% +6% + 2.1% Existing Homes Sales 6.92 Millions 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions 7.35 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% 53.8% 51.4% ISM Services 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% 62.2% Factory Orders -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% +0.9% +0.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 1st Quarter 2006 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.8% 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we had one major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. Employment data came in at 138,000 for April a lot less than expected which fueled the market setting new year high on friday. This was interpreted by the end of rate hikes on next meeting next week. As we noticed in the past week we had numbers dangerous for inflation and many others not. It looks like a balanced economy. The stock market remains cautious and is not overvalued at all. The crude retreated to near 70$. It continues to stay high but seems not being a concern since retail sales remain very strong. The prime is still at 4.75. It will probably be upgraded to 5.0 next tuesday. The SP500 PE ratio is at 18.54 according to december results. We can almost say that for march estimates we are at near 17.2 which is still considered low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.