The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Negative divergences All markets under negative divergences. SP500 sets new high but had distributions(close towards the low of day despite new high) in the last 2 days. ND100 cannot retest recent low and close to give sell signal. DOW came close came close last monday to give buy signal but rebounded to new high. Negative divergences Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell December 29th 2005 1254.42 1311.28 -56.86 25.95 0 ND100 Buy February 3 2006 1664.53 1709.02 44.49 -3.05 1 Dow Sell April 7 2006 11120 11347 -227 273.67 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last sell signal is now behind 57 points. SP500 rallied strong this week on good inflation numbers. We came 10 points away for a new buy signal. We are now at year high again but this time we have a triple negative divergences. Also each time we try to pass over 1310 intraday profit taking takes on. We can now expect SP500 to at least set back to the moving average. After that it is very hard to forecast. Financial results are so far above expectations and is sustaining the market. 1250 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now ahead 44 points. ND100 failed to sustain it's recent uptrend by missing to retest it's recent high. ND100 is now closed to get a sell signal, so stay tuned for any news in this market. We can consider that our first support is now at 1640 followed by another one at 1530, our next support at 1500 and the next one is at 1410. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new sell signal on April 7th. We are now behind 227 points with this new sell signal. We came about 40 points away to get a new buy signal last monday. However DOW rebounded sharply to set new year high. This market is now in a very negative divergence and we can expect to retreat back to the moving average next week. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our April SPX naked PUT 1185 entered at 2.40$ is now expired giving us 2.40 profit. We now enter a new naked PUT for MAY 1225 at about 1.35$. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options and Eminis trading Welcome to this new trading service. With this service we should have every month good opportunities. Click here to find the options trading signals page. This week we had our first trade with PPH(Pharma Index) giving us a very small profit of 10$. BBH just gave us friday a buy signal when it closed at 183.05. So watch the options trading page for instruction. SPX DOW XLE and XAU are far from giving us opportunities. QQQQ is not too far as well as PPH who could give us another one this week if it sets back near 69. Take a look at this page and please let me know if you have any questions about something you don't understand. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Pharma Index will soon be covered and will be traded with PPH etf. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 Apr 2005 PPI +0.5 -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged -0.06% Core PPI +0.1 +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% +0.1% + 0.01% Retail Sales +0.6% -1.4% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% 0.3% + 1.5% CPI +0.4 +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% - 0.01% + 0.5% Core CPI +0.3 +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% + 0.01% Unchanged Housing Starts 1.96M 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M + 0.02% Building Permits 2.06M 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions 2.11 Millions 2.15 Millions Employment 211,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 104,000(revised) 275,000 Durable Goods Orders -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% +1.5% + 6.4%(revised) Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% +2.6% +0.9%(revised) New Homes Sales -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% +6% + 2.1% Existing Homes Sales 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions 7.35 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% 53.8% 51.4% ISM Services 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% 62.2% Factory Orders -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% +0.9% +0.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4th Quarter 2004 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) 3.5% Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we had several major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. PPI was up 0.5% and core PPI was only up 0.1%. CPI was up 0.4% and core CPI was up 0.3%. Housing starts were down 8% and building permits were down sharply as well. Inflation numbers were suggesting a stop in rates hikes and pushed markets higher last tuesday. Housing numbers also down sharply suggest the same thing. The crude is now above 75$. It is going higher and higher and sooner or later it will threat econimic growth. The prime is still at 4.75. Mr. Bernanke said that more hikes might be needed to control inflation. The SP500 PE ratio is at 18.34 according to december results. We can almost say that for march estimates we are at near 17 which is still considered low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.