The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Markets brief All markets except nasdaq showing negative divergences. SP500 reaching new high then setting back under moving average. ND100 broked out above recent trading range. DOW weakening and givng a new sell signal. Uptrend compromised Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell December 29th 2005 1254.42 1295.50 -41.08 0.63 0 ND100 Buy February 3 2006 1664.53 1723.03 58.50 19.37 1 Dow Buy April 7 2006 11120 11120 1 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last sell signal is now behind 41 points. We saw SP500 jumping back to new year high as expected but reacted to a very strong negative divergence friday to close under the moving average. If we were long as we should we would have a sell signal. Slow uptrend pattern is now compromised. We can see a bad divergence (See graphics below) on the momentum indicator. We can now expect SP500 to reach the lower band in the coming 2 weeks to give us a new buy singal. 1250 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now ahead 58 points. This market broked out above the recent trading range (1630 - 1700). ND100 had a good week despite a selloff friday. I doubt however this market will continue higher much longer. At best we can have a retest at last recent high (1760). But I think it will follow our 2 other markets and could give us a sell signal if it sets back under the moving average. We can consider that our first support is now at 1640 followed by another one at 1530, our next support at 1500 and the next one is at 1410. DOW Last Signal Comment We had a new sell signal last friday on DOW yielding a profit of 410 points (near 4%). Dow reacted also to a negative divergence and too high overbought condition. We can now expect this market to reach the lower band in the coming 2 weeks and give us a new buy signal. The uptrend pattern is now compromised. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our April SPX naked PUT 1185 entered at 2.40$ is now worthed 0.30$ with 2 more weeks to go so we are ahead on this one. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options and Eminis trading Welcome to this new trading service. Click here to find the options trading signals page. There you will find the simulation for 2004 2005 and 2006 for DOW(DIA) and SP500(SPX) Energy Index (OIX) and Gold Index (XAU) options trading. QQQQ is now covered and historical data will be there later today. Take a look at this page and please let me know if you have any questions about something you don't understand. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. We could have this week some trade opprtunity on DOW which is only 120 points away to give us a trade opprtunity. SP500 is only 20 points away to give us a trade opprtunity. ND100 is quite far as well as OIX index and GOLD index. So stay tuned for any development with DOW and SP500. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. Pharma Index will soon be covered and will be traded with PPH etf. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info Mars 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 Apr 2005 PPI -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged -0.06% Core PPI +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% +0.1% + 0.01% Retail Sales -1.3% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% 0.3% + 1.5% CPI +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% - 0.01% + 0.5% Core CPI +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% + 0.01% Unchanged Housing Starts 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M + 0.02% Building Permits 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions 2.11 Millions 2.15 Millions Employment 211,000 225,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 104,000(revised) 275,000 Durable Goods Orders -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% +1.5% + 6.4%(revised) Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% +2.6% +0.9%(revised) New Homes Sales -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% +6% + 2.1% Existing Homes Sales 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions 7.35 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 55.2% 57.2% 54.8% 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% 53.8% 51.4% ISM Services 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% 62.2% Factory Orders -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% +0.9% +0.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4th Quarter 2004 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) 3.5% Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we 2 major economic news. See the table above for all numbers. The ISM manufacturing was down to 55.2 for march form 57.2 for february. The employment data for march came in at 211,000 a bit higher than expected. It was well received at first but then triggered a selloff on the market raising again inflation fears. The crude is still above 67$. It is very high and threatening econimic growth. The prime is still at 4.75. Mr. Bernanke said that more hikes might be needed to control inflation. The SP500 PE ratio is at 18.12 which is still considered low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.