The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Markets brief All markets except nasdaq setting back but still in an uptrend. SP500 setting back near moving average. ND100 is a top end of it's trading range and showing strength. DOW had a set back too and near a sell signal. Markets near overbought zone Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell December 29th 2005 1254.42 1294.87 -40.45 -8.08 0 ND100 Buy February 3 2006 1664.53 1703.66 39.13 23.85 1 Dow Buy January 25 2006 10708 11109 402 -171 0 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last sell signal is now behind 40 points. This is the second down week in a row. SP500 is now near the moving average as forecast last week. Slow uptrend pattern remains however intact. We can now expect a new attempt to set new year high. It would then be possible to get a negative divergence when this occurs. 1250 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now ahead 36 points. This market is now at the top end of the recent trading range (1630 - 1700). ND100 had a very good week with all sub sectors participating in the advance. It is very possible we will see a breakout above 1700 with this market. We can consider that our first support is now at 1640 followed by another one at 1530, our next support at 1500 and the next one is at 1410. DOW Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal was on January 25 2006 (See graphic below). So far we are ahead 402 points with the latest buy signal. Dow had a bad week giving back 172 points from the previous week close. It finally reacted to high overbought reading. DOW is now just under the moving average and very close to get a sell signal. So stay tuned with any news with this market. A new attempt to new year high seems compromise but remains possible. Despite this second down week in a row the uptrend pattern remains true. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our April SPX naked PUT 1185 entered at 2.40$ is now worthed 0.40$ with 3 more weeks to go so we are ahead on this one. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options and Eminis trading Welcome to this new trading service. Click here to find the options trading signals page. There you will find the simulation for 2004 2005 and 2006 for DOW(DIA) and SP500(SPX) Energy Index (OIX) and Gold Index (XAU) options trading. QQQQ is now covered and historical data will be there later today. Take a look at this page and please let me know if you have any questions about something you don't understand. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. At this time no markets are closed to get a buy signal for a new trade opportunity. We have to check however for SPX which is about 25 points away to get one. If this market sets back more it might be the time. Same thing with the DOW. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. The Gold Index (XAU) is now covered. You can see the historical for 2004 and 2005 as well as 2006 on the options trading page. This market is about 9 points away to qualify for a new trade. Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) index is now covered and is about 40 points away to trigger a new trade. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 Apr 2005 PPI -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged -0.06% Core PPI +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% +0.1% + 0.01% Retail Sales -1.3% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% 0.3% + 1.5% CPI +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% - 0.01% + 0.5% Core CPI +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% + 0.01% Unchanged Housing Starts 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M + 0.02% Building Permits 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions 2.11 Millions 2.15 Millions Employment 243,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 104,000(revised) 275,000 Durable Goods Orders -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% +1.5% + 6.4%(revised) Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% +2.6% +0.9%(revised) New Homes Sales -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% +6% + 2.1% Existing Homes Sales 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions 7.35 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 54.8 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% 53.8% 51.4% ISM Services 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% 62.2% Factory Orders -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% +0.9% +0.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4th Quarter 2004 1.7% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) 3.5% Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we had no major economic news. The crude is now near 67$ thanks to the tension with Iran nuclear program. It is very high and threatening econimic growth. The prime is now at 4.75. Without any surprise the prime rate was up another .25 this week. Mr. Bernanke said that more hikes might be needed to control inflation. It was some kind of cold shower on investors and explains this week small correction along with the crude price. The SP500 PE ratio is at 19.45 which is still considered low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.