The Index Trading Weekly Newsletter Is now accessible directly from an RSS Feed. If you have a My Yahoo account or an My Msn account go to the Weekly newsletter page to register and you will be advised immediately when changes occur on the site either with trading signals, weekly newsletter or any other changes on the site. You can also create a new entry in an RSS reader. Click Here to register for RSS Feed Markets brief All markets except nasdaq near overbought zone. SP500 still above 1300 now overbought. ND100 stays in a trading range between 1640 and 1700. DOW stays in uptrend above 11300. Markets near overbought zone Last trades update Index Market Last signal Entry date Entry Price Current Price Win / Loss Weekly Change # cycles completed SP500 Sell December 29th 2005 1254.42 1302.95 -48.53 -4.30 0 ND100 Buy February 3 2006 1664.53 1679.81 15.28 -5.85 1 Dow Buy January 25 2006 10708 11280 572 0 0 SP500 Last Signal Comment Our last sell signal is now behind 48 points. SP500 stayed above 1300 and is now overbought (RSI at 68). Slow uptrend pattern is still there but we can now expect a set back near the moving average. It could be very short and be followed by a new attempt to set new year high. 1250 is now our first support. 1170-1180 support level is our second support level. Our next support is at 1140. ND100 Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal is now ahead 15 points. This market continues to struggle to hold on around the last buy signal level. We can continue to observe on the graphic a trading range between 1630 and 1700. ND100 continue non participating in the recent uptrend. ND100 remains neutral with an RSI at 54. It can go both ways. However if it gets to the lower band it would be a good opportunity to get in. So stay tuned for any change with this market. It would also be a nice opportunity for a option short term trade. We can consider that our first support is now at 1640 followed by another one at 1530, our next support at 1500 and the next one is at 1410. DOW Last Signal Comment Our last buy signal was on January 25 2006 (See graphic below). So far we are ahead 572 points with the latest buy signal. Dow continue to remain strong but is now highly overbought (RSI at 78). DOW did not advance this week and a set back to the moving average is expected any time soon. After that a new attempt to new year high can occur. We are not close to get a sell signal. Our first support is now at 10650 and our next support is at 10200. Special Option Strategy Update Our April SPX naked PUT 1185 entered at 2.40$ is now worthed 0.75$ so we are ahead on this one. Always remember that you need between 11,000 and 15,000 USD margin for each contract. Short term Options and Eminis trading Welcome to this new trading service. Click here to find the options trading signals page. There you will find the simulation for 2004 2005 and 2006 for DOW(DIA) and SP500(SPX) Energy Index (OIX) and Gold Index (XAU) options trading. QQQQ is now covered and historical data will be there shortly. Take a look at this page and please let me know if you have any questions about something you don't understand. Please use the link mentionned above to see the target numbers. At this time XAU and QQQQ are the closest market for a new trade opportunity. Check every day on the page to see if the numbers are changed. Of course we are far from a possible entry for now but we never know. The Gold Index (XAU) is now covered. You can see the historical for 2004 and 2005 as well as 2006 on the options trading page. This market is about 9 points away to qualify for a new trade. Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) index is now covered and is about 40 points away to trigger a new trade. Economic Current Conditions Table of Economic Numbers Economic Info February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 Apr 2005 PPI -1.4% +0.3% +0.6% -0.7% +0.7% +1.9% +0.6% +1.0% Unchanged -0.06% Core PPI +0.3% +0.4% +0.1%- +0.1% -0.3% +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% +0.1% + 0.01% Retail Sales -1.3% +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +0.3% +0.2% -2.1% +0.3% +1.0% 0.3% + 1.5% CPI +0.1% +0.7% -0.1% -0.6% +0.2% +1.2% +0.5% +0.5% +0.1% - 0.01% + 0.5% Core CPI +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% + 0.01% Unchanged Housing Starts 2.12M 2.28M 1.933M 2.12M 2.02M 2.13M 2.04M 2.042M 2.045M + 0.02% Building Permits 2.15M 2.22M 2.08M 2.16M 2.10M 2.22M 2.14 Millions 2.167 Millions 2.132 Millions 2.11 Millions 2.15 Millions Employment 243,000 170,000 140,000 305,000 44,000 -35,000 211,000 242,000 166,000 104,000(revised) 275,000 Durable Goods Orders -10.2% +2.5% +3.3% +3.0% -2.1% +3.8 -5.3% +1.5% + 6.4%(revised) Durable Goods Excluding Transportation +0.6% +4.2 -3.7% +2.6% +0.9%(revised) New Homes Sales -5.5% +2.9% -10.71% +12.9 +2.1% -1% +6% + 2.1% Existing Homes Sales 6.91 Millions 6.56 Millions 6.75 Millions 6.97 Millions 7.09 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.29 Millions 7.15 Millions 7.35 Millions ISM Index(Manufacturing) 54.8 55.6% 56.6% 59.1% 59.4% 53.6% 56.6% 53.8% 51.4% ISM Services 56.8% 61.0% 58.9% 60.0% 53.3% 65.0% 60.5% 62.2% Factory Orders -4.5% +1.1% +2.2% -1.7% +2.5% -1.9% +0.9% +0.7% GDP(Gross Domestic Product) Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4th Quarter 2004 1.6% 4.3% 3.3% 3.8%(revised) 3.5% Inflation Numbers 4th Quarter 2005 3rd Quarter 2005 2nd Quarter 2005 1st Quarter 2005 4.07% 4.3% 2.4% 3.1% This week we had 2 major Economic numbers. You can find latest numbers in the table above. PPI was down 1.4% while the core PPI was up 0.3% for february. Existing home sales had quite a jump (+5.2%). Core PPI and existing home sales were higher than expected and pauses a threat again to inflation. We will know this week what will be mr. Bernanke comments about interest rate hikes. The crude is now above 64$. It is still high and threatening econimic growth. The prime is now at 4.50. Contrary to what we were expecting the FED said it might raise rates again soon. It is widely expected we will have another .25 rate hike at the end of march. The SP500 PE ratio is at 19.67 which is still considered low. Remember that when the last major economic cycle that started in march 2003 the PE ratio was at around 16. So we are at the low end. Despite the fact the PE is not too high we will have to watch for a possible bear market later in the fall for the coming year. Our last major bear market was on july 2002.